LIVE Election Day Blogging...
UPDATE: 11:10am PT Reporting the same that we're hearing everywhere. Lines at my polling place were like none I've ever seen. I did, however, vote much earlier than I usually do, so I asked a long time poll worker what it's been like in comparison to the past. Their reply; "It's been non-stop. I've never seen it like this".
One more notable observation - In my decade of voting at the same polling place, I don't believe I've ever seen a single poll worker under the age of 75. Today, however, I was signed in by someone who was 20 if he was a day, confirmed by a woman who was mid to late 30's, and there were at least twice as many poll workers total as I've ever seen before.
It's a great day for Democracy. So far.
Here's my prediction for today from Oct. 11th, that I am still standing by. It's called "The Blueing of America".
UPDATE: 11:23am PT Let's hope Drudge --- with siren --- has this one right!
KERRY CAMPAIGN FINDS COMFORT IN FIRST BATCH OF EXIT POLLS
Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE...National Election Pool --- representing six major news organization --- shows Kerry in striking distance --- with small lead --- in Florida and Ohio..."
If accurate, that report is extremely notable as the first wave of exit polls usually favors Republicans since they historically vote earlier. On the other hand, with Drudge running it, it could be a warning shout-out for the wingnuts to get to the polls! Rush is already discounting the report as "unimportant".
UPDATE: 11:48am PT Rush going out of his way to find any way to discount those exit polls! Including a report from a "Republican Insider" source who he "cannot name" who says they cannot confirm the above report. Right.
UPDATE: 12:27pm PT Hannity in a panic on the radio, though trying to keep up a good game face. Drudge now modifies his report to add "...But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio" and both Rush and Sean are sticking with that part of the story.
Here are the actual early numbers as reported by Drudge, but quickly taken down from his site. They were also reported elsewhere:
_ _ _ AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
_Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41
UPDATE: 12:41pm PT Newt on Sean reports again on the already discredited Philly E-machine story. Desperation at work.
UPDATE: 12:57pm PT Slate has slightly different numbers on a few states than the ones posted above. They seem more in line with reality to me. As well, they have notable reports for Nevada and North Carolina!
_ _ _ CO PA FL OH NV NC
Kerry 46 54 50 50 48 49
_Bush 53 45 49 49 50 51
UPDATE: 1:30pm PT "A VIEW FROM THE RIGHT....Panic at The Corner" via Kevin Drum.
CRIMINEY! [Jonah Goldberg]
I went out for a brief lunch with missus and I come back to discover things are going south? What the...? From what I'm hearing, Florida's an uphill climb right now and New Hampshire's a lost cause. Trying to nail things down.
Keep an eye on the live panicky monkey chatter here.
UPDATE: 2:11pm PT Third round of exit polling data. This time from Raw Story.
_ _ _ CO PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH ME NV AR NC
Kerry 49 58 52 52 51 49 57 53 50 58 49 48 45 47
_Bush 50 42 47 48 48 49 42 47 48 41 49 49 54 53
These look very good. Though I believe I've been deficient in cautioning against irrational exhuberance and to encourage you to take these numbers with several grains of salt. None the less, the early words seem well in favor of Good over Evil.
UPDATE: 2:35pm PT Zogby's Final Call (as of 5pm ET):
Too Close To Call: NV(4) and CO(9)
(Thanks Jaime for all various updated!)
UPDATE: 2:50pm PT 4pm ET exit poll data from Slate. Kerry's lead is holding and improving if these numbers are any good. Note that states like CO and NV are seriously in play. Not a good sign for BushCo by any stretch of the imagination.
_ _ _ CO PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH ME NV CO AR NC
Kerry 46 58 52 52 51 49 57 53 50 58 55 48 49 45 47
_Bush 53 42 47 48 48 49 42 47 48 41 44 49 50 54 53
UPDATE: 3:02pm PT Mystery Pollster gives good reason to be very cautious about these exit poll numbers! Consider yourself warned. Stop reading these numbers and GET OUT THE VOTE!
UPDATE: 3:09pm PT "Nothing is real" --- an apt phrase from the monkey corner:
THIS IS WHAT MATTERS [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
This, by way of he who is, in my humble opinion, one of the smartest polling minds around (I won't tell you who that is so no polling mind is offended): Nothing is real. I repeat, Nothing is real until the precincts start coming in. So the results are not real until much later. This smart person is not at all paniced, because what matters, isn't here yet.
Nope. No "panice" there.
UPDATE: 3:29pm PT Again from Slate...And not as wide a national margin as I'd like it to be! Get to work peeps!:
In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.
UPDATE: 3:46pm PT Drudge, who had previously stopped reporting exit data, has resumed with a bit:
KERRY, BUSH TIED IN OHIO SHOWDOWN, EXITS; KERRY +2 IN FLORIDA
First real poll closing and possible real numbers in 15 minutes...Developing...
UPDATE: 4:02pm PT First official calls from MSNBC...
PROJECTED FOR BUSH:
Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky
TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
KY Senate race
SC Senate race
TOO EARLY TO CALL:
UPDATE: 4:12pm PT Final 6pm ET exit poll numbers from Raw Story...
_ _ _ CO PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA CO NC MO AK LA AZ
Kerry 48 53 51 51 51 50 54 52 49 48 48 46 47 43 45
_Bush 51 46 49 49 47 49 44 47 49 50 52 54 53 56 55
UPDATE: 4:24pm PT From Drudge now...in red...
ENOUGH OF THE MEDIA EXITS; LETS COUNT THE PEOPLE'S VOTES!
What does that tell you? --- By the way, the fact that Virginia and the KY senate races are too close to call should tell you much.
Ohio real numbers in 5 minutes...DEVELOPING...
UPDATE: 4:30pm PT From MSNBC...Notable tea leaves...
TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Ohio (no surprise)
North Carolina Senate Race(!)
South Carolina Senate Race(!)
Kentucky Senate Race(!)
Yo, Vegas peeps! Get to work!
UPDATE: 5:04pm PT From MSNBC...
New Jersey (no surprise, despite last week's fake psyop spin from the monkeys)
TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
CURRENT ELECTORAL: (on both MSNBC and FOX)
Bush - 66
Kerry - 77
UPDATE: 5:15pm PT A little help from your friends? Fox calls South Carolina for Bush! Haven't seen it called anywhere else yet though....DEVELOPING...
UPDATE: 5:39pm PT LIVE and REAL Ohio Numbers here. I don't like the current percentages, but I don't know the order of reporting precincts.
CNN calls North Carolina and South Carolina for Bush (not a surprise, but would have been nice to win)
CNN's CURRENT ELECTORAL:
UPDATE: 6:56pm PT Begala on CNN reports that absentee ballots from the three biggest FL counties (Palm Beach, Broward and...Volusia?) won't be counted until Thursday! Have forgotten how many votes he said that was, 400,000 or so? Urgh...
UPDATE: 7:43pm PT | NEW UPDATES WILL BE UP IN THE NEXT ENTRY...Nail-biter, huh?