Are they correct? We shall see...
By Winter Patriot on 8/8/2006, 8:04pm PT  

Guest blogged by Winter Patriot

With more than 80% of the precincts reporting, and challenger Ned Lamont leading Senator Joe Lieberman by about four percent, Raw Story has called the race (the Democratic primary for a run at the Senate) in favor of Lamont.

The returns today have been been closer than we might have expected, given a poll last week that showed Lamont leading by 54% to 41%. But a more recent poll, showing Lamont's lead as 51%-45%, indicated that the race could be much closer than that.

Based on previous experience, I always get nervous when a last-minute poll shows a big lead evaporating. I don't want to cast aspersions, and I have no reason to disbelieve the poll, but I know that if I were trying to steal an election and my candidate was way behind in the polls, I would want a poll to come along just before the election saying that my candidate was gaining ground fast.

Having said all that, it will be interesting to see whether Raw Story got it right this time, or whether there will be any last-minute surprises.

Personally, I am not holding my breath. I've been to this party before.