By Alan Breslauer on 11/3/2006, 10:55am PT  

Guest Blogged by Alan Breslauer

For what it is worth, gamblers are giving Democrats about a 75% chance of winning back the House on Tuesday. The top chart shows the one-year downward sloping trend line for the GOP keeping the House. The bottom chart evidences the significant (more than 5%) gain the Democrats made today which is, perhaps, attributable to the breaking Ted Haggard scandal. You can see the odds on specific House and Senate races here.

UPDATE FROM BRAD: Please note that it was the oddsmakers in Vegas, who had given odds showing Kerry would win in 2004, which originally spurred our friend Jim Lampley of HBO and NBC to declare that election was "biggest crime in the history of the nation" shortly after it was announced that Bush would be the victor. As Lampley knows, Vegas doesn't like to lose money, so they tend to get these things right.