Just off the phone from a DNC insider — very much in a position to know — who says the following races are being considered, as of this afternoon, to still be very much in play by the DNC (* = Incumbent, Results shown latest reported by state websites as available):
NC-8: Larry Kissel (D) 60,016 / Robin Hayes (R)* 60,481
CT-2: Joe Courtney (D) 121,321 / Rob Simmons (R)* 121,151
FL-13: Christine Jennings (D) 118,739 / Vern Buchanan (R) 119,116
NM-1: Patricia A. Madrid (D) 103,376 / Heather Wilson (R)* 104,863
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 98,100 / Deborah Pryce (R)* 101,636
OH-2: Victoria Wulson (D) 112,952 / Jean Schmidt (R)* 115,817
The source believes that all of the above races, each of them currently very, very close, are winnable and the feeling is that they “could easily win three of those six.”
In each — except for CT-2, where Courtney is leading — the Democratic candidate is currently trailing in the reported results as absentee, provisional, and paper ballots are still be canvassed. As well, challenges and recounts are underway in some of those races (we hope to have more detail shortly here on a couple of those races).
(UPDATE: Several readers have written to ask if other races beyond those mentioned above — such as the U.S. House race in Washington state’s 8th Congressional district between Democrat Darcy Burner and Republican Dave Reichert — are now off the table as far as the DNC is concerned. The races reported above are the only ones named explicitly to us by the DNC sources. However, two different sources there have confirmed that they are largely driven by the folks on the ground in the states, and would urge that noise be made locally — and loudly enough that higher-ups might hear it at the DNC — in order to gain more attention from the national party to other such races still of concern.)
The source also adds that the DNC is considering whether or not to ask for contributions from the public to a legal fund to assure they will have the funds needed to provide full legal resources to thoroughly challenge each of those races.
As well, The BRAD BLOG has also learned the DNC is still keeping their eyes on the Colorado Secretary of State race between Ken Gordon (D) and Mike Coffman (R), given the problems revealed in Colorado’s disasterous certification procedures for voting machines prior to the election, and their massive meltdowns on Election Day in Denver and elsewhere which caused thousands of voters to be turned away from the polls due to machine malfunction.
AP is reporting today that Coffman’s lead is beginning to look insurmountable, though given the fact that Gordon’s numbers in Denver alone outpace Coffman’s by some 70 to 30 percent, the fact that Denver voters, specifically, were disenfranchised at such an alarming rate due to equipment failure on Election Day, certainly “exemplifies,” as the source put it, the need for Election Reform across the country and the importance of Secretary of State races.
The six U.S. House races named above, of course, are just the federal races that the DNC considers “still in play,” but there are innumerable local races and initiatives being challenged around the country, as another DNC source told The BRAD BLOG this morning. As well, there are a number of Congressional races where the candidates have, honorably, refused to concede until every vote is counted and accounted for.
Clint Curtis, the vote-rigging whistleblower who ran against Tom Feeney, the man he claims asked him to create vote-rigging software in 2000 (as The BRAD BLOG originally broke back in 2004 and whose story we’ve been following closely ever since) has issued a press release this morning saying that he will not concede in the race until every vote is accounted for.
“The right to vote and to have that vote counted accurately is the very foundation of our democracy, and I owe it to the voters in my district and the state of Florida to continue to push for accurate, honest elections,” Curtis said in the news release. He points out that as a candidate, he “now has the legal standing to pursue an investigation into the anomalies,” which he claims were reported during his race.
“I can accept that the citizens across the state of Florida were out of step with the rest of the country,” added Curtis, “as long as we know that this election truly reflects their intent.” The Florida Secretary of State’s website currently shows Feeney leading Curtis 58 to 42 percent.
In California’s 50th Congressional district, Francine Busby (D) has still refused to concede in her race against Brian Bilbray (R) in which she reportedly trails 54 to 43 percent. We applaud Busby’s refusal to concede given the outrageously bad administration of the election across the entire San Diego County as overseen by Registrar Mikel Haas, one of the country’s worst.
A Zogby poll taken on Election Day (and shortly thereafter) shows an unexplained 6 point disparity with the final results as we reported last week.
As reported earlier today, Haas’s resignation was called for on Election Night by San Diego County Democratic Party Chair Jess Durfee after voters were disenfranchised across the county when Diebold touch-screen systems failed to work and not enough paper ballots were made available for voters. Many of those voters ended up voting on Spanish language paper ballots after English ballots had run out by 9am on Election Day; others simply gave up and went home or to work without being able to cast a vote at all.
We echo Durfee’s call for Haas to step down immediately. San Diegans deserve honest and accurate elections in which the voters may have confidence in the reported results. Haas has, disgracefully, provided none of the above during his irresponsible tenure.
We originally reported that the Democratic candidate was trailing in the reported results in each of the six DNC-named races. In fact, Democratic candidate Joe Courtney in the CT-2 race is currently ahead in the results as reported so far. We’ve corrected the original misstatement in the article above. Further, AP is now reporting Courtney as the winner after a final canvassing of the ballots.
62 GOP-held House seats: Actual results vs. Forecast Model
The model projected the Dems to win 41 of the 62 GOP seats, assuming ZERO fraud. So far they’ve won 28, including KS-2 which was not in the original list of 62 and is not included in the analysis. The Republicans lead in all but one of the 8 seats still undecided. It now stands at 230D-197R with 8 seats undecided
Given the following FRAUD MODEL scenario:
a) 2% spoiled, lost ballots
b) 6% of Democratic votes switched
The Democrats would have been expected to win just 22 GOP-held seats
(224D-211R), assuming they did not lose any of their own.
These are the 16 elections in which fraud was most likely to occur:
AZ-1, CA-11, CO-4, CT-2, CT-4,
FL-13, FL-24, IL-6, IL-10, KY-4,
NM-1, NC-8, OH-1, OH-6, OH-15, PA-8
The Dems scored major upsets in
NH-2, PA-4, IA-2, KS-2, MN-1
The GOP had upset wins in
FL-13, OH-1, OH-2, OH-15, IL-6, IL-10, IL-13 CT-4, PA-6
SUMMARY ANALYSIS
62 GOP-held seats
Fraud Assumptions:
Spoiled,lost ballots:2%
Switched votes: 6%
Seats Won Dem GOP
No Fraud 41 21
Fraud 22 40
Forecast Switched: 19
Actual Switched: 5
Undecided: 8
Forecast switched: Seats the Democrats were projected to lose due to fraud.
Actual switched: Seats the Democrats lost and were projected to win assuming no fraud.
HOUSE NoFraud Dem Fraud Actual Forecast
Dem GOP Win Dem GOP Diff Und Switch Switch
Average 51.28 48.72 28 47.80 52.20 -4.40 8 5 19
1 AZ 1 50.6 49.4 47.3 52.7 -5.4 yes yes
2 AZ 5 51.6 48.4 yes 48.2 51.8 -3.5 yes
3 AZ 8 56.6 43.4 yes 53.0 47.0 5.9
4 CA 4 47.2 52.8 44.1 55.9 -11.8
5 CA 11 51.6 48.4 yes 48.2 51.8 -3.5 yes
6 CA 50 43.4 56.6 40.5 59.5 -19.0
7 CO 4 50.8 49.2 47.5 52.5 -5.1 yes yes
8 CO 5 46.2 53.8 43.1 56.9 -13.7
9 CO 7 58.8 41.2 yes 55.0 45.0 10.1
10 CT 2 51.0 49.0 47.7 52.3 -4.7 Und yes Dem 66 Recount
11 CT 4 54.0 46.0 50.5 49.5 1.0
12 CT 5 52.6 47.4 yes 49.2 50.8 -1.7 yes
13 FL 13 51.4 48.6 48.0 52.0 -3.9 Und yes Rep 375 recount
14 FL 16 54.6 45.4 yes 51.1 48.9 2.1
15 FL 22 51.2 48.8 yes 47.8 52.2 -4.3 yes
16 FL 24 50.2 49.8 46.9 53.1 -6.2 Und yes
17 ID 1 54.8 45.2 51.3 48.7 2.5
18 IL 6 57.6 42.4 53.9 46.1 7.8
19 IL 10 51.6 48.4 48.2 51.8 -3.5 yes yes
20 IL 14 45.6 54.4 42.6 57.4 -14.9
21 IL 19 42.6 57.4 39.7 60.3 -20.5
22 IN 2 51.8 48.2 yes 48.4 51.6 -3.2 yes
23 IN 8 55.4 44.6 yes 51.8 48.2 3.6
24 IN 9 50.8 49.2 yes 47.5 52.5 -5.1 yes
25 IA 1 54.4 45.6 yes 50.9 49.1 1.7
26 IA 2 49.2 50.8 yes 46.0 54.0 -8.1
27 KS 2 na na yes na na na
28 KY 3 54.4 45.6 yes 50.9 49.1 1.7
29 KY 4 52.8 47.2 49.4 50.6 -1.3 yes yes
30 MN 1 48.8 51.2 yes 45.6 54.4 -8.8
31 MN 2 46.8 53.2 43.7 56.3 -12.6
32 MN 6 47.4 52.6 44.3 55.7 -11.5
33 NV 3 48.0 52.0 44.8 55.2 -10.3
34 NH 1 46.6 53.4 yes 43.5 56.5 -13.0
35 NH 2 50.2 49.8 yes 46.9 53.1 -6.2 yes
36 NJ 7 49.6 50.4 46.3 53.7 -7.3
37 NM 1 54.8 45.2 51.3 48.7 2.5 Und Rep leads by 1500
38 NY 3 47.0 53.0 43.9 56.1 -12.2
39 NY 19 51.4 48.6 yes 48.0 52.0 -3.9 yes
40 NY 20 56.0 44.0 yes 52.4 47.6 4.8
41 NY 24 56.0 44.0 yes 52.4 47.6 4.8
42 NY 26 48.4 51.6 45.2 54.8 -9.6
43 NY 29 56.0 44.0 52.4 47.6 4.8
44 NC 8 52.8 47.2 49.4 50.6 -1.3 Und yes Rep leads by 449
45 NC 11 53.4 46.6 yes 49.9 50.1 -0.1
46 OH 1 51.6 48.4 48.2 51.8 -3.5 yes yes
47 OH 2 52.2 47.8 48.8 51.2 -2.4 Und yes Rep leads by 2300
48 OH 10 47.8 52.2 44.6 55.4 -10.7
49 OH 15 56.6 43.4 53.0 47.0 5.9 Und Rep leads by 3500
50 OH 18 61.4 38.6 yes 57.5 42.5 15.0
51 OK 5 39.4 60.6 36.7 63.3 -26.5
52 PA 4 48.2 51.8 yes 45.0 55.0 -10.0
53 PA 6 53.2 46.8 49.7 50.3 -0.5
54 PA 7 54.4 45.6 yes 50.9 49.1 1.7
55 PA 8 51.8 48.2 yes 48.4 51.6 -3.2 yes
56 PA 10 56.0 44.0 yes 52.4 47.6 4.8
57 TX 22 57.6 42.4 yes 53.9 46.1 7.8
58 VA 2 46.6 53.4 43.5 56.5 -13.0
59 VA 5 37.4 62.6 34.9 65.1 -30.3
60 VA 10 48.6 51.4 45.4 54.6 -9.2
61 WA 8 47.4 52.6 44.3 55.7 -11.5 Und Rep leads by 2300
62 WI 8 53.4 46.6 yes 49.9 50.1 -0.1
Avg 46.65 45.63 DemWin Actual
11/05 Dem GOP Prob Winner
1 CO 7 54 38 100.0% Dem
2 OH 6 58 39 100.0% Dem
3 OH 18 53 33 100.0% GOP
4 IL 6 54 40 100.0% GOP
5 TX 22 36 28 100.0% Dem
6 AZ 8 53 41 100.0% Dem
7 OH 15 53 41 100.0% GOP
8 NY 20 53 42 100.0% Dem
9 NY 24 53 42 100.0% Dem
10 NY 29 53 42 100.0% Und
11 PA 10 47 38 100.0% Dem
12 IN 8 53 43 100.0% Dem
13 ID 1 38 34 100.0% GOP
14 NM 1 53 44 100.0% Und
FRAUD ALERT********************************
1 FL 16 48 41 100.0% Dem
2 IA 1 49 42 100.0% Dem
3 KY 3 52 44 100.0% Dem
4 PA 7 52 44 100.0% Dem
5 CT 4 51 44 100.0% GOP
6 NC 11 48 43 100.0% Dem
7 WI 8 51 45 100.0% Dem
8 PA 6 49 44 100.0% GOP
9 KY 4 45 42 99.8% GOP
10 NC 8 48 44 99.8% GOP
11 CT 5 46 43 99.6% Dem
12 OH 2 48 45 98.8% GOP
13 IN 2 50 47 96.8% Dem
14 PA 8 50 47 96.8% Dem
15 AZ 5 48 46 95.1% Dem
16 CA 11 48 46 95.1% Dem
17 IL 10 48 46 95.1% GOP
18 OH 1 48 46 95.1% GOP
19 FL 13 49 47 92.6% GOP
20 NY 19 49 47 92.6% Dem
21 FL 22 50 48 89.2% Dem
22 CT 2 48 47 84.9% UND
23 CO 4 43 44 79.5% GOP
24 IN 9 46 46 79.5% GOP
25 AZ 1 38 41 73.2% GOP
26 FL 24 43 45 58.2% UND
27 NH 2 46 47 58.2% Dem
END FRAUD ALERT***************************
1 NJ 7 43 46 34.0% GOP
2 IA 2 48 50 20.5% Dem
3 MN 1 47 50 10.8% Dem
4 VA 10 42 47 7.4% GOP
5 NY 26 46 50 4.9% GOP
6 PA 4 47 51 3.2% Dem
7 NV 3 39 46 2.0% GOP
8 OH 10 46 51 1.2% GOP
9 MN 6 42 49 0.4% GOP
10 WA 8 45 51 0.4% UND
11 CA 4 43 50 0.2% GOP
12 NY 3 44 51 0.1% GOP
13 MN 2 42 50 0.0% GOP
14 NH 1 40 49 0.0% Dem
15 VA 2 43 51 0.0% GOP
16 CO 5 42 51 0.0% GOP
17 IL 14 42 52 0.0% GOP
18 CA 50 41 55 0.0% GOP
19 IL 19 36 53 0.0% GOP
20 OK 5 37 59 0.0% GOP
21 VA 5 35 61 0.0% GOP
UNDECIDED RACES:
“¢ Ohio, 15th District: Rep. Deborah Pryce (news, bio, voting record), a member of the House Republican leadership, leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy race by 3,536 votes. Thousands of provisional ballots will be counted beginning Nov. 19 “” a day later than normal in deference to the Ohio State-Michigan football game Nov. 18.
“¢ New Mexico, 1st District: Republican Rep. Heather Wilson (news, bio, voting record) led Democrat Patricia Madrid by fewer than 1,500 votes out of more than 200,000 cast, with about 3,700 ballots remaining to be qualified and tallied.
“¢ North Carolina, 8th District: Rep. Robin Hayes (news, bio, voting record), a Republican, had a 449-vote lead over Democrat Larry Kissell. About 1,500 provisional ballots remained to be counted.
“¢ Ohio, 2nd District: Rep. Jean Schmidt, a Republican who called decorated Vietnam veteran Rep. John Murtha (news, bio, voting record) a coward, was ahead of Democrat Victoria Wulsin by about 2,300 votes. Counting provisional and absentee ballots could take nearly two weeks.
“¢ Connecticut, 2nd District: Democrat Joe Courtney led GOP Rep. Rob Simmons by just 66 votes. A recount is to be completed by Wednesday.
In Florida, a recount began Monday in the contest for the seat Rep. Katherine Harris (news, bio, voting record) gave up to make her failed Senate run. The Associated Press has declared a winner in that race: Republican Vern Buchanan, who leads Democrat Christine Jennings by about 375 votes, or less than 0.02 percent.
“¢ Washington, 8th District: GOP Rep. Dave Reichert led Democrat Darcy Burner by about 3,500 votes, but many ballots in this heavily vote-by-mail state remained to be counted.
This is easier to read than the above:
http://www.progressiveindepende...8;mesg_id=3337
Brad,
You lose your integrity when you bunch Curtis in with other races that are truly too close to call. Give me a break, 58 to 42 percent. There would have to be a helluva lot of cheating for that to occur, although Curtis would know since he is the one who invented the vote rigging software. I’m waiting in anticipation for you to see the light, which, who knows, may happen some day.
Your pal,
TAM
Um Brad,
“In each, the Democratic candidate is currently trailing as absentees, provisionals and paper ballots are still be canvassed.”
Joe Courtney in CT-02 has been in the lead since election night. The above statement is not true. Courtney has never been trailing.
TAM, if they can make the numbers anything the want, what difference does it make if it’s 58-42%? What a specious argument. Those numbers don’t match up at all with the polling. My theory is much more likely: Feeney wanted to humiliate Curtis with a double-digit loss (remember–this was personal, a grudge match), and by doing so sway some folks like yourself into thinking there’s no fraud. Maybe Curtis did lose, but if so it was probably within the +-5 percentage points that the Zogby poll showed. Waiting for you to see the light too, TAM.
–The Neoconvict
Hi, Brad
I don’t know why the DNC fails to mention NY-25 race for Congress. Dem candidate Dan Maffei is within about 3200 votes of his slightly-ahead Republican challenger James Walsh right now. Both candidates admit it’s too close to call with about 13,000 absentee balllots to be counted and vote recounting going on as well.
NY 25 is not over and I don’t know why the DNC left it off their list.
Answer man: Kerry won by 5 million votes…so it’s not a stretch, how much a supposed “margin” is…
TIA: Explain to the Answer Man, what the 2004 Kerry/Bush results really were, please…
AND…I was a Dean man, not a Kerry man.
Numbers mean nothing when fraud is concerned…
Just out of curiosity, is Jean Schmidt winning 51%-49%??? And was there any moisture clouds around her precinct (indoors) while they were “counting”???
Hey Brad,
Good news. The recanvassing is complete and it looks like Joe Courtney had won CT-02!! The Secretary of state will be making a presentation tomorrow at 11:AM.
http://www.joecourtney.com/
TAM: I don’t get why you hate Clint Curtis so much… I’ve seen other “anti-Clint” comments by you. What gives with you and Clint???
I guess this article can be filed under “more news that’s not in the news”…
Along with Rumsfeld being charged with war crimes in Germany…
We think these things are all blaring over the CMSM because we frequent the real news sites.
I went to ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, & FOX main web pages today, in light of the fact that our sec of def is being charged with war crimes. Silly me! I think that’s a huge story. Nothing on any of their home pages about it at the time I checked, except NBC had a little blurb, not near any of the main stories.
Democracy NOW!??? They only had General Karpinski as a guest, interviewed on how she will be the star witness against him.
I guess that happens everyday…when the U.S. secretary of defense is charged with war crimes in Germany.
Other related CMSM non-stories?
Bush & GOP congress pass legislation right before this, so U.S. officials can’t be charge in the U.S. with war crimes…just in October. Hmmmm….guess they knew this was coming???
And I didn’t know this, but Kissinger is in the same boat. He can’t leave the country, or he could be arrested for what Rumsfeld is being charged for!
Nuthin’ big, in the CMSM…nuthin’ at all…
I really think the impeachment of Bush is coming down the road, despite Pelosi and Conyers…
PATIENCE – Thanks for the correction. Have noted it in the original article. My apologies for the oversight!
Should San Diego County Registrar Mikel Haas Resign?
In Rodger Hedgecock’s poll as to whether or not the registrar in San Diego County should resign the results are two to one against resignation although earliar today when I voted they were 2 to 1 in favor of resignation. Apparently there has been a heavy effort to push for a no vote. If you favor resignation go to the poll and vote yes.
To vote in poll go to
http://rogerhedgecock.co…=Thanks+for+your+vote%21
I think the media owes us a highly published final result of every race in this election after every possible vote is meticulously tabulated, ALONG WITH THE RESULTS THAT COULD NOT POSSIBLY BE KNOWN, DUE TO UNAUDITABLE VOTING MACHINES. They, (the media), should not stop publishing that data until America has the best voting system, (electronic or not), the world has ever known.
As soon as all the shills, cronies, and decades old nepotism are expelled from our government, this will be a task Americans of honor and integrity will easily accomplish in time for the 2008 election!
WE ARE THE COUNTRY THAT STUNNED THE WORLD BY PUTTING A MAN ON THE MOON, (37 years ago)!
THIS IS NOT A MOONWALK, IT IS A CAKEWALK!
I thought Clint was doing his own exit type polls. The GOP or just Feeney would have been right out to get Clint. They will not want him around in 2008 if they are now hoping the public will trust e-voting. This one could be major fraud. Is there exit data for this race?
Brad, in the week before the election, you had a(nother) illuminating description of the largely unpublicized story of the new non-secure, easily changeable voting system now in place for members of our military to use when overseas. Considering Iraq alone has around 150,000 troops, shouldn’t that fact be made light of in challenges and recounts of local race results discussed in this article?
Big Dan,
I ask you, why do you have such a hard on for Clint Curtis, and for that matter, why does everyone else? You tell me what has he done to make you like him so much, and for you to blindly follow him? All I’ve seen is him make unfounded accusations. So because of this, he’s the second coming? It’s really useless, this banter, because you are so brainwashed that there’s no convincing you otherwise.
TAM
Ask Again
Does anyone know what Clints own exit polling showed for the race or is this “Top Secret” for now.
Clint, if you read this what do you think. Was it a fair race.
The Answer Man – I’ve been quite patient with you for quite some time. But consider yourself “on notice” for spreading knowing disinformation at this point.
You said, “All I’ve seen is him make unfounded accusations.” Well, that’s either because you’re intellectual dishonest, or your not looking very hard. Which one is it?
His accusations concerning overbilling by Yang Enterprises, Inc., their employment of illegal Communist Chinese alients, the fact that at least one of them was attempting espionage is ALL quite “founded” at this point via state and federal reports and arrest records.
Check ’em out. There almost all here at BRAD BLOG. Start looking.
SALLY – Haven’t seen Clint’s exit polling, so not sure what it showed. Haven’t gotten to speak with him since Election Night actually! I’ll see what I can learn…
Brad
Thanks. It will be awful if Clint in particular has been cheated. Clint would be the one “Feendie” (Thats no typo) and GOP friends would be out to get. The most vocal and active “candidate” against election fraud. “Congratulations Clint” you won they are out. Congrats also Brad and all.