(Blogged by Brad from the road...)
Interesting numbers from the latest Zogby poll (Zogby being the "Official Pollster" for the BRAD BLOG seeing as how they were the only polling organization to get the last two Presidential elections almost exactly right.)
Currently, they've got Kerry over Bush in the head to heads 50% to 43%. When all the other nominees (Nader, Libertarians, Greens, etc.) are factored in, Kerry's lead is 47% to 43%.
Those are national numbers, but as I've pointed out before, it's the Battlegrounds that actually matter. Zogby's previous battleground numbers showed Kerry leading in 13 out of 16 states.
There are a bunch of interesting numbers in the poll's internals, so I suggest you check out the page linked above. Here's a couple items of note that caught my eye:
"The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class – Kerry 45% to Bush's 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.
“Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%....
“Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.”
I think it's notable that voters without Passports prefer Bush. As you'll recall, Bush had never spent a single day overseas until after becoming "President". So it seems to make some sense that those who have no idea what the rest of the world is like would end up supporting Bush. As well, those in rural areas, who are similarly insular in the way they live their lives, also end up supporting the former Governor of Texas.