READER COMMENTS ON
"VIDEO INTERVIEW EXCLUSIVE: Steve Freeman, Author Of 'Was The 2004 Presidential Election Stolen?' Says Explanations of the Exit Polls Still Fail to Support Contention That Bush Won in Either Ohio or the Rest of America"
(10 Responses so far...)
COMMENT #1 [Permalink]
said on 10/8/2007 @ 12:27 pm PT...
COMMENT #2 [Permalink]
said on 10/8/2007 @ 12:43 pm PT...
Nice coverage Alan! Don't forget, we need to get the names of those lawyers who showed up.
COMMENT #3 [Permalink]
said on 10/8/2007 @ 1:55 pm PT...
COMMENT #4 [Permalink]
said on 10/8/2007 @ 9:38 pm PT...
To Brad and Steve:
Steve is correct: the exit polls were biased for Bush; therefore the WPDs (WPEs) are even higher than those reported by Edison-Mitofsky which produce a Kerry vote share range from 51.8 to 52.15%, depending on which WPD method is used (see below).
The Election Calculator model analysis shows that Kerry won by 10 million votes.
This analysis of the final 5 million recorded votes is the clincher (Kerry won 53%). Thats a pretty damn big sample size.
Note the strong statistical correlation between the state exit polls and the corresponding late recorded vote shares.
Reconciling the Final 5 Million Vote Anomaly: Further confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
The 12% difference in margin between the initial 117 million recorded votes (Bush 51-Kerry 48%) and the final (late) 5.0m (Kerry 53-Bush 44%) caused a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). Was this due to the fact that the election was already decided at the 117m mark and vote-rigging was no longer necessary? Late votes (absentees, etc.) were irrelevant as soon as Bush was declared the winner. Many still recall that the day after the election the media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes, and remain unaware of the 5.0m late votes. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.
Kerry's 52.98% share (2.65 of the 5.01m late votes) of the 122.29m recorded total is 64.79m. Adding his 75% share of uncounted votes (2.58 of 3.45m) brings his final total to 67.37m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that Kerry won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) less mortality and assumed a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the national vote.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. After removing states (denoted by * below) which had fewer than 10k late votes and skewed the deviations, the correlation statistic is 0.82.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to the initial recorded
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.
Final Recorded Vote:
Bush 62,040,610 50.73%
Kerry 59,028,439 48.27%
Other 1,224,499 1.00%
Total 122,293,548 100%
Initial 117.28m votes:
Bush 59,834,866 51.02%
Kerry 56,373,514 48.07%
Other 1,073,874 0.91%
Total 117,282,254 100%
Late 5.01m votes:
Bush 2,205,744 44.02%
Kerry 2,654,925 52.98%
Other 150,625 3.00%
Total 5,011,294 100
COMMENT #5 [Permalink]
Jeannie Dean in FL-13
said on 10/8/2007 @ 10:24 pm PT...
GREAT JOB, Alan!~SO happy to find Dr. Freeman on bradblog today, as he is one of my favorite humans.
I had the opportunity to hear him speak last January at the NATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR MEDIA REFORM in Memphis, and was blown away/ horrified/ distraught/ oddly relieved/ then healed by what he told us. (I guess five stages of election fraud awareness--might be more, I'm no psychologist.) FASCINATING horrors he detailed for us in statistics--woke me right up. Dr. Steve Freeman had me from "Hello, the 2004 Election was Stolen and here's the DATA..."
His book "How the 2004 Election was Stolen..." was selected as one of PROJECT CENSORED's top picks as one of the most critically important, yet unheralded, under reported stories of 2006.
Keep up the good work, Alan~thanks for posting this.
(Dr. Freeman's speech at the MEDIA REFORM CONFERENCE:
related: NCMR 2007: EDA Co-Founder Jonathan Simon asks the DNC...
COMMENT #6 [Permalink]
said on 10/9/2007 @ 7:15 am PT...
Ohio Exit Poll/ Late votes
There were 176,000 late votes in recorded in Ohio (5.6 million total). Kerry won 81,000 late votes (56% of the two-party vote).
The unadjusted Ohio exit poll had Kerry winning by 54.2%.
The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won Ohio by 470,000 votes.
COMMENT #7 [Permalink]
said on 10/9/2007 @ 5:33 pm PT...
It never ceases to amaze me why the election was certified with such data. Why Kerry threw in the towel less than 24 hours after the election? I believe Conyers stood alone to question the election. With all the blogging at that time,that's the disgusting part - the election should never have been certified!
COMMENT #8 [Permalink]
said on 10/9/2007 @ 10:15 pm PT...
Gets my dander up all over again. Who knew the fraud was this massive? And there have been NO investigations. Thanks, Dems, continue fiddling...
And Kerry KNOWS this and yet remains silent. Why? Was he threatened? Did his handlers tell him the media would savage him if he fought for truth? Will he even find his spine again and speak out?
COMMENT #9 [Permalink]
Mark A. Adams JD/MBA
said on 10/10/2007 @ 8:07 pm PT...
Alan and Brad:
Thank you for continuing to expose the theft of our country. In case anyone doesn’t know, I thought that I would mention that Congress still has bills pending which would ensure that future elections can be fixed without any problems. Here is more information on that and how you can take action to restore election integrity: http://www.opednews.com/...how_to_take_action_o.htm
Please keep up the good work!
COMMENT #10 [Permalink]
said on 10/15/2007 @ 7:29 pm PT...
Yep, and Kerry took a dive anyway. Nobody pulls that many punches yet shoots themself in the foot like that that's trying to win. The whole thing appears to have been decided beforehand.