READER COMMENTS ON
"BRAD BLOG Premium DVD Offer - 'Uncounted: the New Math of American Elections'"
(7 Responses so far...)
COMMENT #1 [Permalink]
said on 10/28/2007 @ 7:09 pm PT...
You are so shameless in your plugging "Uncounted"!...Not!
The fact that Brad is in it makes this DVD even more desirable and, if he makes some money off of it, he deserves 10 times whatever small bit that he may make off the signed-DVD sales of the thing. I hope that Brad would get a % of the gross of the sales of the entire stock of DVDs, as he really deserves any amount of money that he can lay his hands on.
I'm going to start up on my $20/mo thing AND buy the autographed DVD as well...I encourage all those who follow brad's site do so as well.
And thanks for the disclosure-- it never (or rarely, at least) hurts to do disclosures for transparency and honesty, as such character stock is hard to build, hard to keep and priceless in terms of public perception.
If Ron Paul should win the Presidency (a miracle, I know, but in an HONEST, transparent and hand-counted, paper-balloted, people-controlled election, he'd f*ck'n WIN, for sure, guaranteed.) I would encourage people to clamor loudly for Ron Paul to put Brad in charge of reforming the ENTIRE nation's electoral system. Brad is the only one whom I'd fully trust for this kind of critical job.
Now I'll have to find a way to send a MO to Brad... (No credit card by choice)
RON PAUL ALERT:
On Tues, the 30th, Ron Paul is slated to guest on Leno's "Tonight" show! Check your local listings as to when the "Tonight" show airs. Great exposure for Ron Paul and this one's is the biggest one so far. The amazing Ron Paul juggernaut is getting bigger 'n bigger. His Vegas odds of winning the Repub nomination is now 4-1, which are better odds than Romney, imagine that.
COMMENT #2 [Permalink]
said on 10/28/2007 @ 7:31 pm PT...
Thanks, Mozart. And of course, if I wasn't clear in my "Disclosure" joke in the article, no, I don't receive any percentage from the film, no matter how much sweller it is cuz I'm in it
But I'd sure be happy if a gazillion folks saw it nonetheless!!!
COMMENT #3 [Permalink]
said on 10/28/2007 @ 9:49 pm PT...
I hope that the DVD has closed-captioning...does it? That's critical for me, as I'm nearly deaf...so, Brad, does it? Thanks for your responses, btw, at any time.
And I'm really worried about the looming electional disaster of 2008. There's enough of them damn DREs in place to do major damage; there's enough places where the election head-honchos are still in place to do major damage to honest voting through many shenanigans; there's major movements to disenfranchise voters by bumping them off the rolls for trivial reasons, as well as implementing the voter-ID shit; there's no way that Congress in any way would enact meaningful reforms in time for the 2008 elections, as they benefit from the system as it is; most people in charge of any agency that involves voting are co-opted and sold out; and so on.
Shit. What is one to do other than spread the word/news as one finds on this site? I feel like a dude on a beach seeing a tsunami approaching and not being able to run away in time to save oneself. I hate this kind of disempowered feeling. Hate it.
It would be cool to see "Uncounted" spread far and wide through YouTube--awareness of the masses is the key to winning our war against rampant fascism. Sheesh, I hate fascists.
COMMENT #4 [Permalink]
said on 10/28/2007 @ 10:05 pm PT...
Mozart, thanks for your comments and for your interest in UNCOUNTED. And yes - the film is close captioned. So I hope you enjoy it!
COMMENT #5 [Permalink]
said on 10/29/2007 @ 6:54 am PT...
Maybe it's not worth mentioning but....
Why are all of the major candidates for both sides involved in the council on foreign relations?
It's like all of the members decided to run for president.
Hillary, Obama, Guiliani, Rommney, + more.
Even if the vote is hacked or hackable the candidates are still all running from the same club and will most likely have the same agenda when elected. They have rigged not only the vote system but also the candidate selection. We the people have only one hope, Ron Paul. Otherwise there is to much possibility that the US of A will be the UA by 2010 as the CFR club seems to want this and has put forth their best sheisters to take control.
COMMENT #6 [Permalink]
said on 10/29/2007 @ 4:22 pm PT...
COMMENT #7 [Permalink]
said on 10/31/2007 @ 2:42 pm PT...
The 2000 Election: Starting Point of the Analysis
In every election, millions of votes are never counted. They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.4m recorded, leaving 5.4m uncounted. Most were from heavily democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners. And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth. Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth.
The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close. Consider the Florida fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount - and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. The spoiled punched cards in Florida were just the tip of the national iceberg.
Uncounted and Switched Votes
According to the U.S. Census, 125.7 million votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m. The published Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. Therefore, there is a 95% probability that 125.3-126.1m votes were cast. According to data provided by investigative reporter Greg Palast, 3.006m of 125.3m votes cast were never counted, comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots. The 0.40 million discrepancy between the Census and Palast represents a 0.31% deviation.
Given the Kerry true vote of 66.1 million (based on the 12:22am NEP with feasible weights) and his recorded vote (59.0mm) we can calculate the number of votes which were switched from Kerry to Bush. If we assume that Kerry won 75% (2.6 of 3.4mm) of the uncounted votes based on the Census total of 125.7mm, then 4.5mm (6.8%) of the Kerry vote must have been switched. Furthermore, if we assume that 6.8% of the votes were switched uniformly in each state and allocate the uncounted votes to each state based on population and racial mix, the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won 336 electoral votes (Sensitivity Analysis I). This result matched the pre-election Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation base case forecast that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes (the average of 5000 election trials). The assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
12:22am National Exit Poll
Voted in 2000
Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.49% 27.02 57% 41% 2%
Gore 38.23% 48.08 91% 8% 1%
Bush 37.83% 47.56 10% 90% 0%
Nader 2.46% 3.09 71% 21% 8%
Total 100% 52.57% 46.43% 1.00%
Votes 125.74 66.10 58.38 1.26
125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)
122.295m votes recorded
3.445m votes uncounted
2.584m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry
95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters
The number of votes cast for Kerry switched to Bush.
True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)
S = T - R - U = 66.097 - 59.027 - 2.582 = 4.488m
Switched vote rate:
SVR = S / T = 4.488 / 66.097 = 6.79%
2006 Uncounted and Switched Votes
The goal of this model is to determine the percentage of votes which needed to be switched from the Democrats to the Republicans in order to match the Nov. 9 CBS News reported 52.7% Democratic vote. The Democratic 120 Generic poll trend forecast 56.4%; the initial Wikipedia vote count was 57.7D-41.8R. The model assumes that the Wikipedia numbers represented the TRUE national vote. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted. Approximately 75% of them are Democratic. The racial mix was used to approximate the number of uncounted votes in each state, assuming that 8% of non-whites and 2% of white votes were uncounted. The base case analysis assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. To match the Wikipedia vote share, we assume that 3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted and. Almost one in 12 Democratic votes must have been switched to the Republicans.
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote in each demographic category, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the Wikipedia vote. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and b) 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.
The 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.