I’ve warned you many times about taking polls with a grain of salt by noting that only the Zogby poll has come close to being right over the last two elections (their final poll in 1996 was within within one-tenth of one percent of the final results that year).
So though I pay attention to trends in the polls, I would warn you to not give them to much credence. That said, Zogby’s latest daily tracking poll has Kerry widening his lead over Bush to 3 points with the numbers currently at 47%-44% averaged over the last three days.
And all of that said, I’ll tell you my personal opinion that, barring a number of potentional external events, and there are quite a few possible, I am now predicting a Kerry landslide. That’s right, a landslide. All Battleground States will go to Kerry (including Florida) and a number of “solid red states” to boot.
I don’t often make predictions, as it’s a perilous game that usually comes back to bite the predictor. Not to mention that predictions are like assholes because everybody’s got one. I understand that could well be the case here. But what fun is life if you don’t go out on a limb occassionally?
The main reason for my prediction is that the polls, even Zogby’s, I believe, will proven to be entirely off again this year as they currently fail to account for the huge number of newly registered voters (mostly Democrat and ticked off about a myriad of things) and the enormous number of underground and unpolled folks who either don’t own, or don’t answer polls via land-line telephones (by law, cell phone users cannot be polled).
As I mentioned above, however, there are still a healthy number of mitigating factors (those “external events” I alluded to), that could still well come into play in the 25 days between now and Election Day and which could serve to effect my current prediction. They would include the effects and/or possibilities of (in no particular order of probability):
If none of the above materialize to any great extent, this is Kerry’s race at this point. The “Liberal” media has not yet figured it out, so you haven’t yet heard much of the above from the talking heads. No clue if they’ll figure it out or not prior to the Election.
Sorry to you folks who believe in “jinxing” things, but I’m calling ’em here as I see ’em. Feel free to go on record in comments to tell me how I’m wrong or what I’m missing here.
UPDATE: Latest Gallup Tracking Poll now shows Kerry over Bush by 2 points (50% to 48%)! Notable mostly because this same poll had Bush up by 13 points just over three weeks ago!
UPDATE: And, oh yeah, forgot to mention. The Dems take back the Senate in the bargain as well.
Brad, I’ve been on the same page as you with most of your past comments, but with this one I go on record as being in total disagreement.
This election WILL NOT BE A LANDSLIDE, one way or the other.
I’ve come to this conclusion by trying my best to understand what those on the Right of the political spectrum see in George W.
But before I get to that, let me tell you about our gubernatorial race here in Washington. Chris Gregoire (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) for the position vacated by Gary Locke (D). Two things you need to know are that most Dems don’t like Gregoire (me included), and all Dems hate Rossi.
Which brings me back to George W. I know that not all Republicans like him. But for their vote, how can one put a vote in for a candidate they absolutely *despise* (John Kerry). Likewise, I don’t fully support Chris Gregoire, but there is NO WAY I would put a vote in for Dino Rossi.
So at the national level, Republicans are left with a less than ideal candidate, but a better choice (in their minds) than the other candidate.
This election is way to close to tell. Would anyone be surprised if this election is decided in the courts again?
In a side note, let me tell you that many of the potential voters my age (late 20’s) are exercising their right NOT TO VOTE. The comment I keep getting (that I’m having a hard time answering) is "What’s it matter, both candidates are corrupt…"
I hear ya, Vance. We’re now both on record. Let’s see who ends up having made the right call 🙂
As Brad knows, I’ve predicted Bush to win. Landslide, in the courts, by only a couple electoral votes – a win is a win.
Now, here’s why I think he’ll win, regardless of feelings toward each. As Vance stated, not all Republicans like him, but they *despise* Kerry. However, its not too terrible. Its something like 85% of Republicans support Bush very strongly, but around 70% of Democrats support Kerry strongly.
Personally, I feel that Bush will win because this race is still about hate for him. Brad for instance, doesn’t like Bush, but hasn’t endorsed Kerry.
How many people out there are going to say "Screw it, damn politicians." Vance is in his late 20s, myself in early 20s.
I don’t see the support there for Kerry, but rather the animosity for Bush. Of those people that hate Bush, I forsee many of them not voting, just because they don’t care *THAT* much.
Bush has secured his base moreso then Kerry, and I don’t see an election being won on hate.
I see it sort of like the idea of getting a new boss. You might not like the current one, but at least you know where you stand. With a new one, anything is possible, perhaps worse than the current one. (And yes, it can get worse than Bush for the haters out there)