ElBaradai: ‘Egypt In State of Collapse’

Updated: Egypt revokes Al Jazeera's broadcast license...

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Guest blogged by Ernest A. Canning

“The Egyptians have risen up. They’re not going home until their demands are realized”¦.until justice and democracy is restored,” says the highly respected Dr. Mohamed ElBaradai, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over Al Jazeera English. “The state of Egypt is in a state of collapse.”

ElBaradai, who returned to the country earlier this week, “called upon the Egyptian army to take the side of the people,” and called upon Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to immediately step down.

What is unfolding on the streets of Egypt may well be confirmation of one of the core observations presented by Howard Zinn, who died one year ago this week…

End near for Mubarak regime?

As tens of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo in violation of a state-imposed curfew to demand the “end to Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year presidency,” and police and state security forces have disappeared from the streets, al Jazeera reported that there may be shifts in the Egyptian military towards the demonstrators, though they cautioned that pro-demonstrator statements by soldiers on the streets may not be shared by military leaders.

At least three people were reportedly killed as protesters attempted to storm the interior ministry in Cairo. Rare antiquities at the Egyptian National Museum were destroyed. The military called upon citizens to help resist looters. Al Jazeera English reported that some citizens allegedly captured thugs on motorcycles engaged in vandalism and looting who had central security services IDs and weapons. They compared this to similar recent events in Tunisia where security forces, taking advantage of the chaotic power vacuum, engaged in looting.

The video below points to the likelihood that Mubarak no longer manages the levers of real power that are now in the hands of the people; that his rearrangement of his cabinet is all too reminiscent to shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Does Egypt give hope to peoples suffering under the tyranny of an ostensibly democratic but increasingly authoritarian corporate security state?

In A Power Governments Cannot Suppress the late Howard Zinn observed:

It is easy to be overwhelmed or intimidated by the realization that the war makers have enormous power. But some historical perspective can be useful, because it tells us that at certain points in history governments find that all their power is futile against the power of an aroused citizenry.

There is a basic weakness in governments, however massive their armies, however vast their wealth, however they control images and information, because their power depends on the obedience of citizens…When the citizens begin to suspect they have been deceived and withdraw their support, government loses its legitimacy and its power.

We have seen this happen in recent decades all around the globe. Awaking one morning to see a million angry people in the streets of the capital city, the leaders of a country begin packing their bags and calling for a helicopter.

Something to think about as slick U.S. politicians in both parties strive to meet the insatiable greed of the privileged few whose fortunes are tied to Wall Street, the military-industrial complex and a multinational corporate Empire at the expense of the democratic and economic aspirations and needs of the multitude of ordinary American citizens.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. PST: The latest reports from al Jazeera reflect some ominous developments, including the distinct potential that, what has become widespread looting by “thugs” on motorcycles may be an organized effort by security forces wearing civilian clothes. This has prompted a number of civilian watch committees.

One wonders whether the use of security forces in civilian clothes is intended to provide a plausible denial in light of the Obama administration’s warnings against a violent suppression of the civilian uprising.

One Cairo resident told al Jazeera that the soldiers explained that they could not protect the streets, because they haven’t been ordered to do so; that their only orders were to protect the interior ministry. He said that the interior ministry is “shooting people in the streets” and “we are all in fear.”

A physician eyewitness claims at least ten people have been killed in relation to the attempt to storm the interior ministry.

* * *

UPDATE 01/30/11 On Friday, in “Egypt’s ‘Internet Kill Switch’, Democracy via WikiLeaks & Terror ‘Made in the U.S.A.”, Brad Friedman covered the authoritarian decision of the Hosni Mubarak regime to shut down the internet. He also furnished a link to the outstanding coverage of events available live at Al Jazeera English.

Today, the Mubarak regime announced that it had revoked Al Jazeera’s license to broadcast from Egypt.

Al Jazeera, which noted it had “received widespread global acclaim for its coverage,” denounced the closure as “an act designed to stifle and repress the freedom of reporting…In this time of deep turmoil and unrest in Egyptian society it is imperative that voices from all sides be heard; the closing of our bureau by the Egyptian government is aimed at censoring and silencing the voices of the Egyptian people.”

UPDATE 1/31/11 (From Brad): To offer some additional context to Ernie’s update above, these tweets come from Evan Hill (@evanchill), an Online Producer for Al Jazeera English who is now on the ground in Cairo. AJ English’s streaming coverage has been the definitive source for living streaming coverage from Egypt since the first hints of the uprising.

These encouraging selected tweets from @evanchill were made following the Egypt government’s shut down of AJ’s Cairo bureau (all times Pacific Time)…

Sunday, January 30, 2011 2:15 AM:

Yes, Al Jazeera is still broadcasting live despite apparent shutdown order. No one knows who would enforce it. #jan25

Sunday, January 30, 2011 2:22 AM:

The team is working on a plan if the shutdown does occur. For obvious reasons, won’t be tweeting the details here. #jan25

Sunday, January 30, 2011 11:56 AM:

Online in Cairo using satellite internet. We now have multiple web producers on the ground and can start bringing you news, 24/7. #jan25

Sunday January 30, 2011 12:03 PM:

I’ve been joined by colleague (and fellow Northwestern alum) @glcarlstrom in Egypt. We will be reporting/producing online for you. #jan25

Monday, January 31, 2011 05:08 AM:

Six members of AJE team detained, equipment confiscated. We are still out here with access. Latest audio report http://ow.ly/3NcCu #jan25

Monday, January 31, 2011 06:28 AM:

RT @nolanjazeera We’re okay, they held us for 3 hours, we’ve been released, took cameras, laptops and phones #Egypt #Jan25

* * *

Previous coverage of Egypt at The BRAD BLOG…

• “Egypt’s ‘Internet Kill Switch’, Democracy via WikiLeaks & Terror ‘Made in U.S.A.'”

Recent video of events in Egypt…

* * *

Ernest A. Canning has been an active member of the California state bar since 1977. Mr. Canning has received both undergraduate and graduate degrees in political science as well as a juris doctor. He is also a Vietnam vet (4th Infantry, Central Highlands 1968).

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Reader Comments on

ElBaradai: ‘Egypt In State of Collapse’

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10 Responses

  1. 1)
    Soul Rebel said on 1/29/2011 @ 1:05pm PT: [Permalink]

    I lived in Cairo for 6 months a few years ago. The Egyptians are good people, just as all people are good people. It is good to see that they are throwing off the “Insh’allah” mentality and taking action for themselves. My only fear at this point is that the Muslim Brotherhood will end up with a greater share of power once the smoke clears, and everything that I’ve seen, heard, read about them is that they are fundamentalist, autocratic, and repressive as much as Mubarak. Happily, though, the power vacuum here is created by “the people” and ultimately “the people” will fill it, as opposed to the power vacuum being imposed as it was in Iraq & Afghanistan, in which the only organized groups with the capacity to the fill the vacuum were loose-knit tribal factions which has led to more chais and violence. I really believe that Egypt will go a different way, and it will end up being a model for real democratic reform across the Arab world.

    I was reading last night…
    From http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_egypt_protest

    The Mubarak government boasts about economic achievements: rising GDP and a surging private sector led by a construction boom and vibrant, seemingly recession-proof banks.

    But many say the fruits of growth have been funneled almost entirely to a politically connected elite, leaving average Egyptians surrounded by unattainable symbols of wealth as they struggle to find jobs, pay daily bills and find affordable housing.
    Replace ‘Mubarak’ with ‘Obama’ and ‘Egyptians’ with ‘Americans’…

  2. 2)
    Jeannie Dean said on 1/29/2011 @ 1:39pm PT: [Permalink]

    Excellent article, as always, Ernest. I just made your Zinn quote my Facebook status for the day.

    I can’t help thinking as I’m bearing witness to this(third)Internet Revolution live-streamed in real time from Egypt: the most significant difference between the U.S. and the Middle East is that they get real news.

    …the bastards.

    A popular uprising is less likely here because the TEA-SNEECHES (with stars on thars)have been co-opted for battle on behalf of, all too willing to punch lateral and down; chomping at the bit to wage a war on the rational rest of us based on their daily drip-feed of lies and derision.

    …and they’re armed with semi-automatics.
    We are armed with the good sense God gave us and above average (increasingly anomalous) reading / comprehension skills.

    I’m telling you fine BB peeps again, FWIW: Twitter up while you can, kids. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

  3. Avatar photo
    3)
    Ernest A. Canning said on 1/29/2011 @ 2:51pm PT: [Permalink]

    Jeannie Dean @2 wrote:

    A popular uprising is less likely here because the TEA-SNEECHES…

    I’m not so sure, JD.

    What’s going to happen to all that pent-up anger if the “useful idiots” who make up the rank-and-file of the billionaire-funded Tea Party discover that they’ve been deceived by their corporate masters, and the bevy of hard-right propagandists, who shill on behalf of the corporatocracy?

  4. 4)
    Jeannie Dean said on 1/29/2011 @ 3:58pm PT: [Permalink]

    Such a good question, Ernest! What do I think will happen when…? Well, I have many great, hot hopes about that which for practical reasons I try to keep tempered with a cool sense of pessimistic realism.

    Sometimes it works, sometimes it tears me.

    On one hand, I don’t feel reassured by their track-record with facts, Ernest. As you know, I believe many of them to be intellectually impenetrable and not just because the very idea of having an intellect causes their balls to visibly shrivel.

    It’s not just the anonymous hot-heads who drive by here, who will inevitably comment nasty and intractable at a safe cyber-distance – no, beyond them I’m talking about my own first-hand, real life studies of the Tea-Sneeches in my Family…

    My pessimistic feeling is that we are naive in assuming that folks who follow Michele Bachman will ever have some kind a cognitive epiphany that doesn’t involve some kind of alien anal intervention.

    There’s just no ‘there’ there, anymore, my brilliant, thoughtful Ernest. The very idea of my Aunt Sue (moved to a mouth-froth every time she has to press ‘1’ for English) will ever come back to us, post-Beck-brained, to fight for the cause of “might for right” …feels as foreign and lovely a fantasy as a trip through the foggy mists of Avalon.

    Still, it’s a fantastical trip I most desire and hope for, nonetheless.

  5. 5)
    Jeannie Dean said on 1/29/2011 @ 4:12pm PT: [Permalink]

    Wanted to add re: “…aroused citizenry”.

    We are not falling short on the arousal part. In fact, I’m guessing we’re about aroused-out. So what would it take? What kind of information would have to be released that isn’t already out there in force enough to re-brain them in behaving?

    What (more) will it take for this dim-lit quarter percent of Americans to come together and comport themselves with the same kind of collective grace, sacrifice and courage we have seen from the peoples of Iran, Tunisia, and now Egypt?…

    I dunno. But it has to start with them responding to genuine external stimuli, doesn’t it?

  6. Avatar photo
    6)
    Ernest A. Canning said on 1/29/2011 @ 4:24pm PT: [Permalink]

    I used the word “if,” JD, not “when.”

    I have to agree that there are a good number whose heads are so deeply immersed inside the disinformation bubble erected by the right wing echo chamber that they are impervious to logic and facts.

    But the numbers who are beyond reach may not be as high as imagined–a fact attested to by the meager 18% of Americans who supported the House Republican repeal of the so-called health care “reform.”

    Don’t know your Aunt Sue. Didn’t have in mind Michelle Bachman, a paid propagandist.

    What I had in mind can be seen in Brad’s post:

    Sunday Disney/Beck Remix Toon of the Moment: ‘Right Wing Duck’

    Classic, no?

  7. 7)
    Bumkin said on 1/30/2011 @ 4:46am PT: [Permalink]

    Having traveled and lived in the third world extensively, and having had the confidence of politicians, I want to say it is very unlikely that the struggle is as simple as it appears to us from afar. These conflicts are hardly ever motivated by ideology or principle, but rather are funded by powerful vested interests, hiding their agenda (as in America).

  8. 8)
    Kenneth Fingeret said on 1/30/2011 @ 10:39am PT: [Permalink]

    Hello Ernest A. Canning,
    I like what you have written as well as JD and your comments. I think that sometime in the future a mass uprising will occur. It may be put down once or multiple times but when it succeeds there is a great chance for chaos to emerge as the victor. The US is being destroyed from within and like all empires in the past it will collapse from the rot. After that the US could be damaged easily by external forces. Do I wish this to occur NO! but will it occur HELL YES!!!

  9. 9)
    KatieB said on 1/31/2011 @ 6:01pm PT: [Permalink]

    Revolution here will take a lot more people without work and starving first. We are a nation in which a large portion of the poorest in our ranks are obese. And we are a nation of people nearly all of whom have mobile phones and televisions and internet access. Once more of us are living on the street hungry looking though the window glass of the mansions and restaurants of the obscenely rich as they get served their 5-course meals on silver platters… and once we no longer have televisions and cable and professional sports teams and ability to afford alcohol or entertainment to keep us distracted and docile, then the tumbrels will undoubtedly start rolling. Fact is, we still have too much to lose to really effectively organize our warring factions (“liberal” vs. “conservative”, “tea party” vs. “immigrant population”). Under our current conditions, these factions can easily be manipulated to fight with one another through propaganda than join to fight a common cause. As bad as things seem at the moment, compared to many other places in the world, including those in the middle east, we still have it pretty good here in the United States, the population considered as a whole.

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