By Brad Friedman on 10/31/2004, 12:22pm PT  

Having watched the bulk of today's Sunday news shows, I can report that the Republicans aren't quite as nervous as they obviously were on last week's shows. Perhaps it's due to the "little gift", as a senior GOP strategist appallingly described it, that they were given by bin Laden on Friday.

"We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."

A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."

He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.

Nonetheless, I'll continue to stand by my previous prediction of a Kerry victory on Tuesday. Though now it's all down to "GET OUT THE VOTE", "GET OUT THE VOTE", "GET OUT THE VOTE".

If you are not helping to do that, please go to Voter Call, and join the effort from the comfort of your sofa, now! You. Are. Needed.

That said, here's a round-up of the polls from yesterday, taken after Bush's "little gift":

DCorps: Bush 47 - Kerry 48
Fox: Bush 46 - Kerry 46
ARG: Bush 48 - Kerry 48
Zogby: Bush 48 - Kerry 48
WPost: Bush 48 - Kerry 48
ABC: Bush 49 - Kerry 49

Seemingly, about as close as you could get. But these are not good numbers for either an encumbent or for a Republican. Look at today's numbers, versus 2000's numbers on the same days, according to Zogby:

Election 2004
4 Days Out: Bush 46 - Kerry 47
3 Days Out: Bush 48 - Kerry 48

Election 2000
4 Days Out: Bush 46 - Gore 42
3 Days Out: Bush 46 - Gore 44
FINAL RESULT: Bush 47.87% - Gore 48.38%

Lastly, and perhaps even more reliable than all of the above: Without fail since 1933, if the Washington Redskins won their final home game, the incumbent has been re-elected.

Current score of today's Redskins/Packers game in D.C.
(With 1:44 left in 4th Quarter) FINAL!:
Redskins 14 - Packers 28