By Brad Friedman on 8/9/2011, 7:41pm PT  

AP's running totals are here. TPM's "scoreboard", which breaks down by race, but not by county, but does offer percentage of vote reported, is here. Some pre-election poll results for comparison are here.

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1:32am CT: State Democrats now retract their previous charge of "election tampering" (as posted in the 11:54a update below). The full statement/retraction from WI Democratic Party chair Mike Tate, via TPM:

On Tuesday night, Wisconsin spoke loud and clear with the recall of two entrenched Republicans. This is an accomplishment of historic proportions that I do not wish to be overshadowed by statements regarding results in the 8th Senate District. Though we believe that Sandy Pasch was able to battle Alberta Darling to a virtual tie, on her turf, we will not pursue questions of irregularities. Those heat-of-the-moment statements came in light of the uncertainties that arose from a recent election, known too well.

Lame, Dems. You don't charge election tampering and evidence of fraud when you ain't got none. Want some? Try counting the actual ballots in Wisconsin rather than relying on oft-failed, easily-manipulated computers to do so. You might be amazed at what you find.

12:51a CT: AP is now calling it for Darling (R) over Pasch (D) in the 8th district, 39,471 to 34,096 (54% to 46%) with all but one counting unit in Milwaukee County reporting. That means if tonight's unverified results do not change, the Democrats failed to win enough seats for a takeover of the majority in the Wisconsin state Senate. Republicans are reported to have retained 4 of their seats tonight, while Democrats are said to have taken over 2 in today's unprecedented, historic recall elections.

Pasch has said (see 12:09a update below) she would not be conceding tonight and neither her nor the state Democratic Party would have any further comments for the evening, even in response to the Dems claims of "tampering" in Kathy Nickolaus' Waukesha County (see 11:54p update below).

For night owls & election integrity mavens: I'll be on KGO am810 in San Francisco tonight (Tuesday) at 11:30p PT (1:30a CT) with Peter B. Collins to discuss what we know about Wisconsin results tonight, today's shut down of exit polling only in Waukesha, the Koch's Americans for Prosperity dirty tricks leading up to today, and undoubtedly a bit on Kathy Nickolaus' long and storied history. If you're not in SF, you can listen live online here.

(For "morning owls", I'll be on Nicole Sandler's Radio or Not Wednesday morning at 8:30am PT/10:30a CT. And for "afternoon owls", I'll be on my own show on KPFK/Pacifica 90.7FM here in Los Angeles at 3:30p PT/5:30p CT Wednesday. You can listen to that one live online here. I suspect we'll be talking about WI on all of the above.)

12:16a CT: As she told me she would (see 11:54p update below), Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus has just updated her results with the final counting unit now included. Her totals in Waukesha are now, Darling (R): 9,449 - Pasch (D): 4,767.

That last (previously) unreported counting unit was the largest of the 11 total in the 8th District section of Waukesha County. It was the Village of Menomonee Falls, Wards 14, 15 & 21. They report a total of 1,956 votes from the three wards making up that unit.

I've posted a copy of those results here [PDF], just in case Nickolaus forgot to hit the save button.

12:09a CT: 8th District Democratic candidate Sandy Pasch told supporters an hour or so ago that the race would be too close for her to call tonight. Her @SandyforSenate account just now tweeted: "Neither Sandy or the Democratic Party will issues any statements tonight. Thank you very much for your support tonight."

11:54p CT: I just spoke with Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus to ask her why there was one outstanding reporting unit still unreported (Village of Menomonee Falls, Wards 14, 15 & 21) in her posted results (reposted here [PDF]).

She told me: "They were absentee ballots, I just got it in, I'm just printing it. The municipal clerk just faxed it to me 5 minutes ago."

I asked why they were so late in coming, she said: "They were so busy they didn't get their absentee ballots done during the night, so they had to get them done after that."

Within the past hour, the WI Democratic Party issued a statement, accusing Nickolaus of "tampering" with the results. Here is their full statement:

Waukesha County Tampering

MADISON-Following is the statement of Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Mike Tate following evidence of election tampering in the 8th State Senate District race.

"The race to determine control of the Wisconsin Senate has fallen in the hands of the Waukesha County clerk, who has already distinguished herself as incompetent, if not worse. She is once more tampering with the results of a consequential election and in the next hours we will determine our next course of action. For now, Wisconsin should know that a dark cloud hangs over these important results."

Tate offers no additional evidence to support his claim of "tampering".

At this hour, according to AP, based on computer-reported results, the Rs have held 3 seats, Ds have picked up 1, but the last, in state Senate District 8, is still too close to call. Here are their numbers at this hour (and prior to Nickolaus posting the last unreported unit in her county.):

11:10p CT: Computer results from 10 of 11 counting units in Waukesha County are now posted on Nickolaus' county website, though not yet updated at AP. We've got a copy here [PDF]. Those results flip the results (for the moment) from Pasch (D) who had been leading, to Darling (R) who now leads 52.3% to 47.7%, according to the computer-counted and unverified-by-humans results. The 2600 vote lead for the R would need to be made up for largely in Milwaukee now, which leans hard D and currently has 39 of 51 units reporting.

10:41p CT: Wow. AP calls District 18 for Democratic King over the incumbent Republican philanderer Sen. Randy Hopper. That means, Rs have 3, Ds have 2 with 1 out. If the Ds win, they take the Senate majority back. The last district out is District 8, containing Kathy Nickolaus' Waukesha County where, for some reason, just 1 of 11 counting units have reported more than 2 and a half hours since polls closed. She has reported all of 597 votes so far tonight.

10:27p CT: Why do I get a bad feeling that this is coming down to Waukesha County... Kathy Nickolaus' Waukesha County... Where 10 of 11 counting units are still not reporting. Only 1 has numbers in. Have I mentioned that Waukesha County is the only place in the state where Exit Polls got shut down by officials today...

10:10p CT: Ds get their first pickup, according to AP. Shilling unseats Kapanke in District 32, with Ds said leading in both of the two outstanding races. They need to win both to take the majority back from the Rs.

10:07p CT: Republican Olsen now called as "winner" by AP in 14th district, leaving 3 districts, all of which would need to be won by Ds for them to take the majority in the state Senate. The Ds currently lead in 2 and are neck-and-neck in 1. One of those districts where the Ds are up, the 8th, is in Milwaukee, but also in Kathy Nickolaus' Waukesha County where, for some reason, just 1 of 11 counting units are currently reporting. To recap, as of now, Rs win 3 out of 6 so far, according to the computer counts.

9:42p CT Update to previous note. Ds now leading in 3 of 4, according to AP's numbers. But many votes still out in 2 of those 3 districts.

9:36p CT - Remember, while most votes are cast on hand-marked paper ballots in WI, most of them are then counted by easily-manipulated, oft-failed optical-scan computers made by Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia. Worse, there is no examination of those op-scan ballots whatsoever. Whatever the computer says the results are, will be the results, short of a "recount".

With that in mind, as of 9:30p CT, AP has "called" two races, in the 2nd and 10th Districts, for the Republican candidates, state Senators Cowles and Harsdorf respectively. Both of those victories, if they are accurate, were largely predicted/expected, according to pre-election polling.

In the four uncalled races at this hour, the Ds lead in two, the Rs lead in two. However, the Ds need three wins tonight to take the majority in the WI state Senate.

Discuss.