After well over a year of political, if not all out civil war in Wisconsin in the wake of the state’s Republican Gov. Scott Walker and the majority-GOP legislature unilaterally stripping many of the state’s citizens of their rights to collectively bargain, Walker’s fate is finally up for grabs today, along with that of his Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch and the political balance of the state Senate via the seats of four Republican state Senators.
A Democratic win in just one of those Senate seats will return the majority in that body to the Democrats, making remarkably extreme actions like those we’ve seen over the past two years in the Badger State much more difficult to accomplish no matter who wins today’s gubernatorial race.
But we’ll see what happens today, tonight and, under several foreboding scenarios, over the next several weeks and/or months as the citizens of the state exercise some direct and wonderful democracy today at the ballot box — or, at least, at the computerized tabulators.
Aside from expectedly heavy turnout being reported across the state (and particularly in Milwaukee), and races that are thought to be exceedingly tight, here are a few morning news items out of Wisconsin which may (or may not) turn out to have much more relevance in the near future, depending on how things go in the next several hours…
PROTECT THE INTEGRITY OF ELECTION RESULTS
Yesterday, I detailed several steps that citizens of all parties in Wisconsin (and even some of you outside of the state), can take to help protect the integrity of today’s election results. Given that WI uses mostly paper ballots which are counted in secret by oft-failed, easily-manipulated computer optical-scan systems, and that they do not bother to verify computer tabulations in any way before announcing those results to the public, there is only so much that can be done. But some of my recommended steps may prove to be quite useful later, and all of them are pretty easy. See my report from last night for those easy steps, and please continue to share them broadly!
DIRTY TRICKS
Democrats are alleging that dirty tricks are under way, with robocalls instructing voters that if they signed the recall petition, their work is done and there is no need to vote today. The call reportedly says: “thank you for taking this call … if you signed the recall petition, you did not have to vote because that would be your vote.” That, of course, is completely untrue.
A different robocall reportedly uses the old “Election day is Wednesday” ruse, though, unlike the other call, that one seems unlikely to fool many folks. Both calls, at this hour, are still only alleged, since audio has yet to surface from either, but both sound feasible.
Last week, another dirty trick was confirmed when supporters of Walker’s opponent Milwaukee Gov. Tom Barrett, were said to have received Spam Text Messages charging Barrett to be a “union puppet” and supplying a phone number along with it. The number, however, went to Barrett’s campaign headquarters. A flood of complaints to that number then effectively shut down the Democrats’ phone banking efforts for a time.
Walker’s campaign claims they have nothing to do with any of the dirty tricks. Nothing similar has been reported to my knowledge as being carried out by the Democrats. The state Republican Party has so far refused to comment on the reported robocalls today, and says they will not do so until actual audio from the calls surface.
LOST STUDENT VOTES
With the race reportedly as close as it is, at least according to pre-election polls, student voters could make a big difference in today’s results as they are expected to heavily support the Democrats. Many students, however, may be in for an ugly surprise when they attempt to vote today.
Last year, the Republican state Legislature adopted a number of provisions that make it much more difficult (and in some cases impossible) for legal voters to exercise their legal right to vote.
One such provision was a draconian polling place Photo ID restriction which was, thankfully, blocked by two different judges in two different cases (see here and here). Both found the GOP restriction on voting was in explicit violation of the state Constitution’s guaranteed right to vote. Both state appellate courts and the state Supreme Court refused to overturn the judges’ rulings, despite a strong push from the Republican state Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen.
But a change in the period of time that a citizen must live in one location in order to vote there was not struck down, and could have a serious impact today, particularly if the race is as close as predicted. The provision says a voter must live in an area for 28 days, rather than 10, before being able to register to vote there (or to update their registrations to the new location.) Think Progress explains:
Therefore, any student at these schools who registered to vote at school but is now home for the summer will not be permitted to update their registration at their parents’ house because they will have been home for less than 28 days. Under the old law, a student not on campus for the summer would have been permitted to update her registration at the polls and vote because she will have been home (or elsewhere off-campus) for more than 10 days.
As a result, thousands of Wisconsin students will likely be barred from taking part in today’s recall vote.
The League of Women Voters of Wisconsin today said that they are “hearing many reports from students whose right to vote is being questioned at the polls because they have moved in the past 28 days.”
The LWV goes on to note that “If you voted in the May 8 primary for the recall election, you must vote in the same polling place for today’s election. If you did not vote on May 8, you may declare either your college address or your home/summer address as your residence, and you may register at the polls today.”
They also recommend folks call the Election Protection hotline at 866-OUR-VOTE to report any problems at the polling place.
Also remember, same-day registration and voting is still legal in the state of Wisconsin.
KATHY NICKOLAUS AND WAUKESHA COUNTY
As we detailed just before the recall primary, reports of Scott Walker’s former Republican Assembly Caucus colleague turned oft-failed and controversial Republican County Clerk of Waukesha (the largest Republican county in the state, crucial to a Walker victory today) stepping aside for the recall elections, at the demand of the County’s Republican Board of Executives, were apparently unfounded — at least according to Nickolaus who suddenly sang a different tune just before the primaries.
While “A group of Waukesha County residents that claim to be a mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents emailed County Executive Dan Vrakas Monday afternoon requesting that County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus be banned from Tuesday’s election process,” according to Milwaukee’s Journal Sentinel, that is unlikely to happen.
The group is seeking a restraining order to keep her out of County election headquarters today. They are unlikely to get it, as Nickolaus is an elected official who has been charged with no crimes — just massive incompetence by both Republicans and Democrats, along with flipping the results of last year’s state Supreme Court race when she is said to have “discovered” some 14,000 votes that ended up flipping the race from the Independent candidate to her old boss, the incumbent Republican Justice David Prosser.
Washington Post’s Greg Sargent reports today that he’s been told by County Executives that Nickolaus “will not be involved in the vote counting this evening.” But that was the same claim made during the recall primary as well, before Nickolaus announced that she had no intention of stepping aside.
Even the Journal Sentinel at this hour has no idea “Who’s running the election in Waukesha County?” as Nickolaus has been observed passing out election supplies to municipal clerks and fielding questions from officials (while refusing to answer questions from the media.)
In either case, even if she steps aside, her own hand-picked and hand-trained deputy Kelly Yaeger will be in charge, which brings little comfort to folks like Election Integrity expert John Washburn of Wisconsin Fair Elections. Washburn — a Republican who sometime ago had, himself, sat in for Nickolaus at a County Executive meeting, though has since lost all faith in her — told me that he has no more confidence in Yaeger than he has in Nickolaus to properly carry out election administration and vote tabulation duties in Waukesha.
‘RECOUNT’?
In opposition to the usual narrative, it seems to be Democrats this time around who are reportedly floating the possibility of a “recount” in the event of a very close election.
We put the word “recount” in quotes, given the fact that almost all ballots cast in the state of WI are not actually counted in the first place. Rather, they are secretly tallied inside optical-scan computers which either tally the votes correctly or not. Tonight there will be no way to know when results announced. The state has no mandated procedures for verifying the accuracy of the computers which, as we reported yesterday, have a tendency to declare losing candidates as “winners”, drop thousands of votes without notice, and can otherwise be easily gamed to report anything a malicious hacker or insider might wish them to report.
Unfortunately, “recounts” in the state of Wisconsin, as we learned last year during the statewide Supreme Court “recount” between Prosser and his challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg are largely a complete joke. “Recount theater” if you will.
In that case, a two-month long statewide hand-count ensued, during which “widespread irregularities” were discovered, particularly in Nickolaus’ Waukesha, where ballot bags had been discovered ripped open prior to the counting, security seals were found missing or changed, and some computer results tapes were revealed as having dates indicating they’d been printed days prior to the election.
Despite all of those breath-taking revelations, the state’s top election agency, the Government Accountability Board (G.A.B.), certified the “recount” tallies without bothering to even read, much less investigate, the thousands of anomalies and exhibits documented during the “recount” process which Kloppenberg would ultimately describe as revealing a “cascade of irregularities” in a process that “should be a wake-up call” to voters of the Badger State.
Despite that wake-up call, few, if any procedures have been changed in the state since last year, so we will hope against hope that more “recount theater” will not be needed this year, no matter who is announced by the computers tonight to be the “winner” of these historic recalls.
To help, towards that end, allow me to once again recommend my article from last night detailing a few easy steps that voters in Wisconsin (and even observers outside the state) can do — either in Wisconsin or outside of it — to help make either malfunction or malfeasance just a little bit more difficult to affect today’s election results.
Also remember to call both 866-VOTE-WIS and 866-OUR-VOTE to report any problems as they are seen today. The G.A.B. can be emailed at: gab@wi.gov with any problem reports.
The polls close at 8pm CT tonight in Wisconsin, and completely unverified computer results are likely to be reported in short order thereafter, either accurately or inaccurately.
While it no doubt came too late to have a direct impact on the election, a new report has surfaced that Scott Walker’s former Deputy Chief of Staff when he was the Milwaukee County Executive, Tim Russell, leaked “a document that indicated that Walker has been stonewalling [the John Doe] investigation.”
Walker could survive the Recall only to find himself at the wrong end of a criminal complaint.
119% turnout? Not exactly
One can see in this short piece from Politico how GOP yarns about “voter fraud” are started.
The clerk’s office released a report of a 119% turnout in Madison, WI — a Democratic Party stronghold.
As it turns out, the report was not based on the number of voters who actually cast ballots but upon a projection based upon the large number of voters who turned out early in the day.
Now that 48% turned out by 4:00 p.m. Central, the clerk’s office has submitted a new projection of a 96% turnout based on the fact that the polls will close at 8:00 p.m.
Taking a break from the webcast of the transit of Venus, I will hope against hope that the voters will have managed to vote and the machines will work properly. And then I’ll hope that we will see two exceedingly rare events today, the transit and a veritable rout by the Democrats in Wisconsin.
well I see this is written by a biased reporter (blogger) what a joke you arte ok with voter fraud o none side but not the other …pathetic and surely a sign of your character or lack therof. so what about theunion busses head into WI from MI the cars full of union backed illegal votes coming to town .. that’s ok with you I see even with 96-119% voter turn out no fraud there right how transparent and sickening of you least your words are etched in print so when the time comes you will eat your words!
Re Brent @4:
Try taking English 101. Your writing is atrocious.
“what a joke you arte ok with voter fraud o none side but not the other ”
Two articles down on the frontpage there’s a bit about how California voters’ recent decision to have an open-ish primary will probably allow for two dems to run against each other.. why would he cover that if he’d be ok with it?
And is english really that hard to handle? I had to read over that post a few times..
I just cant wait to see the results from Waukesha County, on Friday…
6:55 PT – NBC calls it for Walker?!
So far(if I remember correctly)the info Rachel Maddow just gave us is–
1. exit polls show union participation in the voting is up 6% from 2010.
2. exit polls show voters in the recall prefer Obama to Romney by 12 points.
3. with less than 30% of the vote in they project Walker as the winner.
To sum up–union participation significantly up, voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama, Walker wins handily. Trust us. We’re counting the votes on these excellent and reliable machines. No problems. No chocolate mess. Trust but don’t verify. Just like Reagan said.
It’s great living in a very rich banana republic.
I am concerned about the accuracy of the count. Is this yet another example of “mechanical red shift” in the vote counting (i.e machine based election fraud)?
This Wisconsin election does not pass the smell test.
from comments posted on guardian.co.uk: 9.40pm: This just in: Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets dramatic news:
Craig Gilbert @WisVoter
latest exits adjustment now has it walker 52, barrett 48
5 Jun 12
//
If true then that’s it then, Walker’s won.
Presumably, the change in the figure came from adding later data from the field. But that’s quite a swing from the slightly earlier poll showing an even 50/50 split.
================ end of quote ============
Ok class. An exit poll is essentially a random sample of voting. The sample grows and grows until the polls close, and then since there are no more people to interview, the sample is as large and as stable as it’s ever going to be.
And so, when there is a report after the polls have closed, saying that the updated exit poll has shifted by 2 whole percentage points–it just can’t do that, because you just can’t have a huge number of voters arrive at the last moment before the polls close, and then they all vote at once.
So forget about “Presumably, the change in the figure came from adding later data from the field.” That didn’t happen, and could not have happened. What I’m sure did happen was that the exit poll was modified using the data reported out from precincts where they could tally up quickly after close-of-polls from electronic voting machines, AND THE RESULTS FROM THOSE MACHINES MUST HAVE DIFFERED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE EXIT-POLL DATA FROM THOSE SAME PRECINCTS.
So, this will be interesting, and hopefully Barrett won’t stupidly concede the election until the dust has settled and we have a chance to really dig into the results to see if maybe there were enough “glitches” to only make it look like Walker has won.
From Nate Silver tonight–
So I guess Nate does not believe the exit polls he’s reported showing the Walker/Barrett race a dead heat. I’m thinking he WILL believe whatever numbers are reported to have been tallied by the error-prone, easily hackable machines that are offered with no oversight.
How is it that a math nerd like Nate Silver either doesn’t know about or is completely dismissive of all the computer experts who say again and again that the machines he believes in are crap and should not be used for voting? How does he NEVER calculate the POSSIBILITY of either malfunction by or malfeasance with the machines?
Wish you would cover some Los Angeles-area election integrity stuff.
I mean, I know Wisconsin’s the big deal and all, but what about these InkaVote machines, the optical scanners….that we’re using all over L.A. County? Are they reliable? Do they count votes right? Is the Registar only required to test one percent of them? Or any at all, for accuracy?
re: my comment #12
Sorry, I screwed up the blockquotes thingee. Got it exactly backwards.
Of course the stupid Democrats concede before we know if there was election fraud…or if all the absentee ballots have been counted..I feel so sorry for the people of Wisconsin who worked so hard for Barrett.
The big populous Republican strongholds in Wisconsin saw small increases in total votes but percentage spread stayed about the same as it was in 2010.
These Republican counties in Wisconsin (below) seem odd to me. Some saw dramatic increases in Republican votes over that of the democratic votes when compared to 2010. In some cases 20-35% increases in numbers only to the Republican side and with some dramatic spread shifts.
Brown
Buffalo
Crawford
Door
Green
Lafayette
Oconto
Pepin
Pierce
Price
Rusk
shawano
Trempealeau
Trempealeau and Buffalo seem especially interesting in their shifts and their fairly isolated areas.
Oh My God, what has just happened in Wisconsin I grew up in, the Untited States, the World ?
“Fighting Bob” La Follette is rolling over in…
well you know…..
Jesus H. Christ I hate the Koch Power!
Well, USA and the World, brace yourselves for President Mitt Romney brought to you be electronically-tabulated elections.
Off Topic: In Orange County, CA today my girl friend found out that she is now a registered Republican even though she has NEVER registered herself for that party. Someone else changed her party affiliation. I wonder how that was done?
Both Davey Crocket @12 and WingnutSteve @15 display a level of dishonesty that typifies the ideological right. Both suggest that Brad only raises the issue of the need to apply Democracy’s Gold Standard ““ hand marked, paper ballots publicly hand counted (with results publicly posted) at each precinct on Election Night ““ when progressive candidates or causes lose. WingnutSteve even goes so far as to sarcastically suggest asking the same questions about John Lehman’s WI State Senate victory.
Both have been around The BRAD BLOG long enough to realize that they are publishing comments that are blatantly false — that Brad has consistently advocated electoral transparency irrespective of whether the winner was from the Left or the Right.
See, e.g., NY-23 E-Vote Failures Merit Full Hand Count in Response where Brad questioned the op scan results when Bill Owens (D) was declared the winner of an NY-23 special election over Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, and ‘Election Integrity is Vital’: Joe Miller Makes a Federal Case out of It in AK’s U.S. Senate Contest in which Brad presented the same issues of election integrity when the ‘Tea Party’ candidate had been on the wrong end of numbers spewed out by an e-voting system.
Ska-T @19 wrote:
Check out GOP Voter Registration Firm Turns in Thousands of ‘Invalid’ Registration Forms in California.
You might want to look into when and with whose assistance your girlfriend registered to vote.
Ernest A. Canning @ 21:
That’s just it. She was registered as “X party” and didn’t re-register, but her party affiliation was changed to Republican anyway. The only action she took in the recent past was to request permanent vote by mail status from the County.
What in the HELL is going on in Wisconsin? I’m supposed to believe Walker and the Republicans didn’t commit massive election fraud in Wisconsin? Consider the fact NBC NEWS reported that in their exit polls, 28% of those Union folks said they voted for Walker and 38% of households voted for Walker. WTF? I know damn good and well that cannot be accurate; who in the hell is going to blatantly vote against their own Union jobs?
65% said they were going to vote for Obama, but were supposed to believe all these people voted for Walker the hated Republican? Get the ff outta here!
If it smells like Walker-Koch election fraud, it is Republican election fraud.
A hit dog barks loudest………Republicans have been accusing the Democrats of voter fraud, by individual voters; absurd beyond belief. Vote stealers accusing Democrats of stealing votes.