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Bi-Partisan House to Obama: Get Out of Iraq
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...as of this morning, anyway.
By Brad Friedman on 10/24/2004 1:37pm PT  

Summarizing the latest polls, ABC This Week displayed it this way to a clearly concerned Ken Mehlman, chair of Bush/Cheney '04:

LATEST NATIONAL POLLS...
Marist: BUSH +1
Pew: EVEN
ABC News: BUSH +1
AP-Ipsos: KERRY +3
NBC/Wall Street Journal: EVEN

Those are simply horrible numbers for an incumbent, since undecideds late in the game have always traditionally broken for the challenger. (Emphasis on traditionally! Everything is whacky this year!)

More troubling for Mehlman though, were these numbers:

LATEST BATTLEGROUND POLLS...
Marist: KERRY +8
Pew: KERRY +6
ABC News: KERRY +1
AP-Ipsos: KERRY +4
NBC/Wall Street Journal: KERRY +6

As I've been saying for sometime, unless there's a new shake-up (terrorist attack, huge Kerry foul-up, bin Laden capture, etc.) it's gonna be Kerry in a walk and the Senate goes Democrat.

(Kerry is pictured in the center on right there, Thursday in Minnesota, one of those "Battleground States" that the GOP likes to publically suggest --- emphasis on publically --- will go to Bush.)

Given, however, the concerted, organized and parrallel strategies of the Republicans right now to both keep folks from voting and at the same time spin the premise that Democrats are planning dirty voter tricks and legal challenges to the results (generally, when Republicans make a charge of anything, it means they themselves are actually doing it), there are reasons to stay very vigilant everywhere.

But supporting my suggestion that things are going well for the Dems, I'd point you to MyDD who's been doing terrific analysis of all the various polls out there. Here's what they have to say about actual voting data coming in from early voting in Iowa (one of the Battlegrounds that the conservative media is too frightened to admit will most likely go to Kerry):

In actual votes. With at least 7% of the vote in, right now Kerry holds a sizable lead on Bush:
Ballots Returned %
RNC 28,824 28.2
DNC 51,706 50.6
IND 21,590 21.1
Total 102,120 100.0

Finally, see this WaPo piece about the real concerns of Bush/Cheney '04 as revealed by an insider who has access to their actual internal polling:

The Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls have indicated, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error --- a statistical tie.

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,'" the official said. "And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

As usual, I predict the safety of the "conventional wisdom" --- which the Mainstream Media enjoys hiding behind --- will prove to be wrong in the end. So give credence to all those "Bush is leading" pronouncements at your own risk. The Mainstream Media has gotten it wrong in the last 3 elections. Why should they stop now?

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/24/2004 12:48pm PT  

The list of newspapers and magazines that endorsed Bush in 2000 but either refuse to endorse him again, or have chosen to endorse Kerry this year continues to grow. (Are there any that endorsed Gore in 2000 but are now endorsing Bush? Any?)

Here's one of the latest to have endorsed Bush in 2000, the conservative Detroit News refusing to endorse Bush again this year:

Four years ago, the choice was clear. We endorsed George W. Bush based on his promises of fiscal conservatism, limited government and prudence in foreign affairs.

Today, we sadly acknowledge that the president has failed to deliver on those promises.
...
This decision to remain silent will disappoint readers who expect The Detroit News to stand with the Republican presidential candidate come hell or high water. Their expectations are not unwarranted - we have never endorsed a Democrat for president, and only failed to endorse twice before, both times during the Franklin Roosevelt years.
...
Finally, on the matter of civil liberties, Bush has turned away from the conservative doctrine that the Constitution must be strictly observed.

They had much more to say about the failures of Bush. And, as expected, they also have problems with John Kerry. But it's the Bush bashing that's notable here since this paper is conservative and had previously endorsed Bush in 2000.

They're droppin' like flies folks.

UPDATE: MyDD reports on newspaper endorsements as of this morning "Nationwide, Kerry has picked up 17 Bush papers from 2000, while losing only two Gore papers to Bush."

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/23/2004 11:28pm PT  

You're just a click away from a hot one-on-one chat with a few Weapons of Mass...Seduction!

Perhaps the single funniest video ad I've seen all season.

After you've watched the commercial, be sure to hit the "LISTEN ONLINE" link as well!

(Big props to Amir for the tip! He will rock you!)

ReddIt this story!



Force the Media to Keep Reporting on the White House Website Scrub!
By Brad Friedman on 10/23/2004 11:47am PT  

Please go to the AFP's wire report on our White House Website Scrub story. Scroll to the bottom of their article where it asks "How do you rate this story?" and select "5" to "Rate this Story Highly" so it helps keep the story up at the top of various news searches!

May help other sources to pick up on it! This is very embarrassing to the White House! Let's help keep up the shame!

More on that AFP story and more later...STILL DEVELOPING...

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/23/2004 11:33am PT  

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/23/2004 11:28am PT  

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(Please kill me when this is all over.)
By Brad Friedman on 10/23/2004 10:57am PT  

Several great responses to Bush's lame wolf ad...

A great eagle/ostrich video ad from the DNC!

Fin's prescient and troubling "Lone Wolf" video ad (made at least a month ago!)

And finally, yes, it's true...www.WolfPacksForTruth.org (Hopefully Sinclair will soon give them time to tell their side of this important story.)

The Bush ad is lame, by the way, if only because the fear tactics he's using are all well and good and expected by now (and it's not particularly scary at that), but the "facts" they give about Kerry voting to "gut intelligence" have all been well debunked as nonsense months ago by FactCheck.org (See their article: "President claims 1995 Kerry plan would "gut" the intelligence services. It was a 1% cut, and key Republicans approved something similar.") Nonetheless, they they keep lying about them anyway. Never let a lie get in the way of a good old fashioned fear and smear, I guess.

ReddIt this story!



...but should have.
By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 10:43pm PT  

As I mentioned, more on this whole "White House Website Scrub" story hopefully tomorrow, but in the meantime, here's a White House website video of a Martin Luther King portrait unveiling from January 21, 2002. They haven't removed it (yet) but lord knows they probably should have! Watch the first few incredible seconds of the video to see why.

But in case they take it down after we publish this item, here's the first few words from the transcript to listen out for:

THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you all very much for coming. Mrs. King, thanks for this beautiful portrait. I can't wait to hang it. (Laughter.)

Youch. Yes, he said that.

(Thanks to reader KB for this horrific find!)

ReddIt this story!



'White House Website Scrub' Story Hits the Wires!
'Some Guy With a Website' Strikes Again!
By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 8:26pm PT  

Geez, AFP, I always give you guys credit when I report on your stories! ;-)

Anyway, glad they finally picked up on it and tossed it onto the AFP/Yahoo wires. Their report is filed here: "Iraq coalition vanishes from White House website"

(NOTE: That's two credits I've now given AFP in the same story! Oops, make that three!)

Oh, well, we're not looking for credit here, but we are glad that some of our work on the White House Website Scrub is finally breaking out of the Blogosphere (where the stories have been linked far and wide of late --- according to Technorati.com last night, one of our items had made it to #10 in all of Political Blogistan, and #6 with a bullet amongst the Liberal/Pinko Sector at the time someone had alerted me to it...But linked, so far, to none of the major Old School "News" Sites that I know of.)

Hey, CNN and MSNBC (won't even bother with Fox) it's your turn to start reporting now!

The specific information from the AFP (Oops...four) report filed today, on the disappearing "Coalition List" was originally reported here on 10/6/04 and then followed up on 10/17/04.

More to report on this whole story by the way. I've been doing a lot of research, and following up as many leads from you guys that I can. So, stay tuned. Thanks to all who have sent in stuff. Apologies for slow email replies, but I'm trying to get to them all.

More thanks though for spreading the information far and wide! We'll get those bastards, yet.

(Special props to reader "pamindurham" for catching the AFP story on the wire and letting us know! Oops...that's five!)

UPDATE 10/29/04: BRAD BLOG SUCCESS! WH restores Audio/Video! Though much still missing...

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 6:55pm PT  

Just typed "poll" into Yahoo News. These are the first results I got back, both from headlines today:

"Reuters Poll: Bush Holds Two-Point Lead Over Kerry"
"President Bush holds a slim two-point lead on Democratic rival John Kerry in the stretch run of a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday."
Results reported in the story: Bush 47% - Kerry 45%

"AP Poll: Bush, Kerry in Tie Before Election"
"Many voters are dissatisfied with President Bush's job performance but uneasy about Democrat John Kerry's ability to protect the nation, according to an Associated Press poll that found the two presidential candidates locked in a tie."
Results reported in the story: Bush 46% - Kerry 49%

Yes. You read that correctly. There's your "Liberal" Media.

And as it turns out, a non-partisan study today shows us that Bush Supporters are so wildly disinformed even about their own candidate(!) that of course they'd believe there is a "Liberal" Media. You gotta click through this link to see what I mean!

ReddIt this story!



(But plenty of 'infections'?)
By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 2:54pm PT  

And this is from the Washington Times of all places...

The Army is negotiating with civilian leaders about eliminating a women-in-combat ban so it can place mixed-sex support companies within warfighting units, starting with a division going to Iraq in January.
...
[T]he Army is now in discussions with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's staff to see whether the 10-year-old ban in this one area should be lifted.

No word on whether the Army has cleared this policy with Newt Gingrinch yet.

(P.S. Please click the ad on the left for of our new sponsor, EnjoyTheDraft.com, for more drafty fun!)

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 2:24pm PT  

Again, we attempt to appeal here to the intellectually honest conservatives out there (yes, there are a few left) who's company we enjoy on the BRAD BLOG from time to time.

In an article titled "Kerry's the One", American Conservative magazine's Scott McConnell endorses Kerry! Here's why:

Bush has behaved like a caricature of what a right-wing president is supposed to be, and his continuation in office will discredit any sort of conservatism for generations. The launching of an invasion against a country that posed no threat to the U.S., the doling out of war profits and concessions to politically favored corporations, the financing of the war by ballooning the deficit to be passed on to the nation's children, the ceaseless drive to cut taxes for those outside the middle class and working poor: it is as if Bush sought to resurrect every false 1960s-era left-wing cliche about predatory imperialism and turn it into administration policy. Add to this his nation-breaking immigration proposal --- Bush has laid out a mad scheme to import immigrants to fill any job where the wage is so low that an American can't be found to do it --- and you have a presidency that combines imperialist Right and open-borders Left in a uniquely noxious cocktail.
...
George W. Bush has come to embody a politics that is antithetical to almost any kind of thoughtful conservatism. His international policies have been based on the hopelessly naive belief that foreign peoples are eager to be liberated by American armies --- a notion more grounded in Leon Trotsky's concept of global revolution than any sort of conservative statecraft...This election is all about George W. Bush, and those issues are enough to render him unworthy of any conservative support.

Of course, I don't personally find endorsements to mean all that much, otherwise I'd link to Iran's endorsement of Bush or Jesse Ventura's endorsement of Kerry. Oh, wait...I just did! Hey, this saying one thing and doing another thing is kinda fun! I got your values right here, Mission Accomplished Boy!

ReddIt this story!



By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 10:55am PT  

Via Slate:

October 21, 2000 (for polls taken October 16-October 21, 2000)

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (10/18-19): Bush 45 - Gore 42
Gallup/CNN/USAToday (10/19/21): Bush 50 - Gore 41
ABC News (10/19-21): Bush 48 - Gore 45
Newsweek (10/18-20): Bush 48 - Gore 41
CBS News/New York Times (10/18-21): Bush 46 - Gore 44
Tarrance Group/Lake Snell Perry (10/16-19): Bush 44 - Gore 39
CSM/IBD/TIPP (10/19-22): Bush 44 - Gore 42
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby (10/19-21): Bush 45 - Gore 41

ReddIt this story!



Ann Coulter Fights Pie Terrorism
...By ducking and running.
By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 10:39am PT  

ReddIt this story!



Campaign more important than National Security?
By Brad Friedman on 10/22/2004 9:52am PT  

Haven't we been told by the Bush Administration for months now how al Qaeda would love to disrupt our elections with "a Madrid style attack"? Therefore, shouldn't our National Security Advisor be back at the White House War Room right about now manning her post with ever increasing vigilance the closer we get to the election? Josh Marshall asks just that...

If this whole 'al Qaida disrupting the democratic process' is on the level then we're entering the red zone right about now. We're ten days out from the election.

So why is the National Security Advisor, Condi Rice, out hitting the campaign trail?

Think about that for a second. Is there any possible good answer? Either all the effort to hype an election day al Qaida threat is just another effort to use the White House's control over the intelligence community as a campaign asset or Rice is shirking her duties at a moment of acute national peril.

Tough call. The White House has a long track record to support both of those possibilities. But then...anything to win!

ReddIt this story!



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