Guest Blogged by Brad Jacobson of MediaBloodhound
Considering many of the staggering results of Thursday’s New York Times/CBS News poll, overall media coverage and examination of the findings have been less than thorough. With the seeming sea change that has occurred, when comparing public opinion before both conventions to public opinion now (the period measured in the poll), you might think it would garner at least as much attention as, say, lipstick-on-a-pig palooza.
Taken as a whole, findings of this poll — some noted in Thursday’s national media discourse, some not — paint the bleakest picture yet for the McCain/Palin ticket. The following compares opinions before the convention to current opinions…
- Independents: 43%-42% for McCain; 48%-41% for Obama. While the Independent vote is constantly touted as the determining factor in this election, this specific figure was one of the least discussed in the media, including The New York Times article that broke down its very own jointly published poll. The closest Times reporters Robin Toner and Adam Nagourney get to noting this switch? "And the New York Times/CBS News poll found no evidence, at least to date, that Ms. Palin has allowed Mr. McCain to expand his appeal to women voters or independent voters." While this figure is in an online graphic snapshot of some of the poll’s findings, it’s perplexing how Toner and Nagourney managed to omit the fact that Obama is now up by 7 points among Independents.
- Moderates: 48%-36% for Obama; 56%-33% for Obama. Though it’s not completely clear what separates a "moderate" from an "Independent," aside from an Independent having a specific registered political affiliation, I didn’t see this result discussed anywhere yesterday, including in the Toner and Nagourney article; in fact, the category isn’t cited once (save in a side graphic). Imagine that: a 23% spread among so-called Moderates isn’t worthy of mention. Incidentally, a later question in the poll asks respondents whether they consider themselves liberals, moderates, or conservatives. 39% of Americans, the majority, consider themselves moderates; 24% liberal and 33% conservative.
- White women: 44%-37% for McCain; 47%-45% for Obama. This figure was more broadly discussed but — with rare exception, such as on MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Show — not with anywhere near the attention or specificity it deserved. A Lexis/Nexis search came up empty for any mainstream news headlines (as opposed to op-eds) noting Obama’s 10-point overall gain among white women. MSNBC’s Chris Matthews typified the handling of this rather dramatic shift:
CLARENCE PAGE: What these polls have shown is that Palin helped immensely with Republicans, especially Republican women. Not so much with non-Republicans.
MATTHEWS: Not Hillary people?
PAGE: Definitely not Hillary people.
MATTHEWS: There is a still a problem he faces, Barack, despite these good numbers for him, older white women have a problem. I have to think some of it might be age and ethnicity, put it together nicely. But some people aren’t used to this new situation of a candidate like Barack. I’m trying to say it as nice as I can.
It’s true: Obama’s numbers are lower among white women age 45 or older. Yet even in that category, he jumped six points, from 36%-42%, now trailing McCain 42%-49%. Moreover, among white women under age 45, Obama gained 15 points, going from 39%-54%. Matthews mentions this great disparity between under or over age 45 voters, but fails to note this specific number about white women under age 45 or Obama’s overall 10-point bump with white women. Instead, he focuses on Obama’s difficulty winning over old white racist women who are still afraid of voting for a black man. He should point that out, but omitting the other two figures heavily skews the reality of this poll’s results and further entrenches the media myth that only a small number of white people support Obama.
- 78% of Americans rate the economy "fairly bad" or "very bad" (it’s an even split: 39% fairly bad; 39% very bad. 61% think the economy is "getting worse"; 32% think it’s "staying the same; a whopping 6% think it’s "getting better."
- 53% think the war in Iraq is "not part" of the war on terrorism.
- Sarah Palin’s favorable rating, at 40%, has plummeted to only two points higher than that of Joe Biden’s, at 38%. (Factor in that Biden has been around forever and people are still just beginning to get to know Palin.) Even more telling, Palin’s 30% unfavorable rating is nearly double that of Biden’s, with an unfavorable rating of 17%.
- Percentage who think "Obama shares the values most Americans try to live by"? 66%. (You might be surprised to know this hasn’t changed much since before the conventions; back then, 63% thought that, which goes to show how widespread the false — and yes, overtly racist and xenophobic — "Obama-is-not-one-of-us" meme has been carried in the media. Wouldn’t this be an impressive and reassuring figure to call out? 66% of Americans think a black man named Barack Hussein Obama shares their values. Oh, by the way, more Americans think Obama shares their values than does John "Country First" McCain (61% see him sharing their values). Talk about quashing another received media notion. Of course, nary a peep about this figure.
- Is the candidate "someone you can relate to"? Obama: 57% yes; McCain: 47% yes; Obama: 40% no; McCain 51% no. This one continues to dismantle the myth of Obama as "other." Could that be why it got no play?
- If either became President, "will it make the United States’ image in the world better, make it worse, or will it have no effect…"? Obama: better 55%; worse 15%; no effect 26%. McCain: better 26%; worse 25%; no effect (aka McSame) 46%. Truly brutal.
- Did McCain and Obama pick their respective Vice Presidential running mates on the basis of them being "well-qualified for the job" or because they would "help win the election"? Biden: 57% well-qualified; 31% help win the election. Palin: 17% well-qualified (yes, more than 10 points lower than President Bush’s favorable rating); 75% help win the election.
- "If Barack Obama is elected President and cannot finish his term in office, do you think Joe Biden would be qualified to serve as President, or would you be concerned about him?" 65% qualified; 24% concerned. "If John McCain is elected President and cannot finish his term in office, do you think Sarah Palin would be qualified to serve as President, or would you be concerned about her?" 33% qualified; 62% concerned.
- President Bush’s disapproval rating stands at 68%, which, as Toner and Nagourney point out, "was as high as it has been for any sitting president in the history of New York Times polling." Ouch.
Please note: I purposely omitted Obama’s high number on "change" and McCain’s high but lesser number on "commander-in-chief" because both of these figures received wide focus in the national media. Part of the reason is that these differences are real. They exist. They should receive attention. Unfortunately, however, these two differentiators, tried and true talking points of both campaigns, obscure the myriad other differentiators between these two candidates, as well as their running mates.
The mainstream media are famously lazy, the simpler the storyline the better: Obama’s the change guy, McCain’s the war guy. But as the breakdown of these other numbers shows, citizens are regularly fed other storylines that are patently false, such as Obama somehow holding values that are distinctly different from those of most Americans. Or that he’s seen as an elitist by any substantial portion of the populace, when, in reality, those who see him as such tend to be insultingly disingenuous media elites with multi-million-dollar contracts who are being paid to stoke the horse race or clownishly dishonest GOP lackeys who are projecting a false attribute onto a candidate who not long ago finally paid off his student loans and lived off of food stamps for part of his childhood.
Note to media: Why don’t you ask the 66% of Americans who think Barack Obama shares their values if he’s an elitist? And why don’t you let Americans know that fewer of them think John McCain shares their values? From now until the election, whenever desperate McCain surrogates and GOP water-carrying members of the media trot out this demonstrably false and racially coded talking point against Obama — and they will — responsible members of the media no longer have any excuse to entertain this wholly fabricated smear.
Cross-posted from MediaBloodhound.
Dude, the media has no credibility anymore, period.
They are a tool of big oil, pharma, military and Wall st.
Pretty soon the taxpayers will be bailing them out also.
And some icing for that cake,
The McCain-Keating Connection
By Progressive Accountability
September 19, 2008
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20.../keating_video
we’re all breathing toxic crap from our computers http://www.rawair.net/articles.html
My wife is an “Older White Woman.” If she is typical, the P-M ticket has a real problem. She says she cannot STAND Palin’s fishwife voice! The very thought of “That Woman” in the Chief Executive’s chair repels her. Being of the “Gentler Sex,” the thought of a macho, gun-totin’ female is repulsive. “At least,” she says, “Hillary didn’t try to pretend that she was a man.”
My mom is a 73 yo white and she has been for Obama since she first heard him…She called him the black FDR, her favorite Pres. that she grew up with.
I forgot to mention big agriculture in number one above.
Listening to Kennedy and Pap on Ring of Fire today – Kennedy says there are about 30 different tactics that the GOP is using to get likely Democrats booted from the voter rolls. One of them he mentioned was the foreclosure issue, another was mismatched official names in multiple government agency databases (i.e. not including a junior, or a missing hyphen would get you pulled.)
What I’m wondering is if there is a compiled list of these 30 or so issues that Kennedy is talking about, and if so, can we get it posted?
On a hunch, knowing McCain’s Mob connections, I Googled “Palin + Organized Crime” The following came up:
#
The Palin Organized Crime Family
Sep 19, 2008 … The Palin Organized Crime FamilySara Palin: The Don Todd Palin: The muscle of the Palin family Bristol Palin: In charge of prostitution …
seattle.craigslist.org/see/rnr/847876882.html – Similar pages – Note this
#
Re:The Palin Organized Crime Family
Sep 19, 2008 … McCain didn’t want to tap Sarah Palin for VP but he had no choice. It’s not Cheney and Rove pulling the strings in Washington, …
seattle.craigslist.org/see/rnr/847896307.html – Similar pages – Note this
But- clicking on them came up with the notation that they had been flagged for removal. WHY???
IF Lansky-Bronfman is ACTUALLY pulling the strings in the Republican Party, I think the Public has the right to KNOW it!
Can the debates be rigged?
can the debates be rigged?
thats interesting question because i have been trying to get the fact that mccain was censored at the servicenation forum on sept 11 out to someone that could tell the world,,,i noticed it when i watched the program live and if u look at cspans web page under the recent programs list.pg 13 now,watch servicenation at about 9:44 in the tape, mccains answer is blocked
i feel this is very important,not because i am a mccain fan,as i am not but because he must of said something the ceo cons didnt want out there,and how can the american peops decide who to vote for when they dont get to hear the candidates thoughts
now this is what we r seeing in the midwest and i am curious if the entire nation had the answer blocked or just here in comcast country?
My two grandchildren are in their early twenties, both very much in favor of Obama and both rely entirely on their cell phones and the web. Has anyone figured a way to poll these young people who do not have land line phones or are listed in the yellow pages? Seems to me with the huge increase in voter registration among college age kids, not including them in their polling data would skew any results from all polls.
PS–at 76 I will vote for Obama in a heartbeat–John McCain is near my age and I can’t remember what I had for breakfast and I suspect he can’t either.
What part of McCains answer was blocked?
The part where he says “My Friends”?
Or the part where he bad mouths Obama?
That is the only things he knows how to do besides filibuster.
… Elisabeth Ham, Tulsa, Ok.
Maybe a “txt poll” would work if someone financed it.
floridot…i dont know what he says…its buzzed out…it is after he starts bitching about congress “after their 5 week vacation//////then buzzzzzzz
did u look at the cspan video?
part of the reason i want to know what peops in other parts of the country see is i wonder who does the censoring….the fcc or comcast
It appears to me that the media has now decided to work the “close” horserace angle for all it’s worth ever since the whole country tuned out in ’96 when polls showed a Clinton blowout. No telling how much advertising money was lost during that season, not to mention opportunities to shill products. I’m sure they’ll plan to never let that happen again. They approach it just like hyping a football game. LSU plays Appalachan State. “App State could win! Look at all their weapons! Don’t miss this huge game!” And a lot more football fans tune in. So, now it’s important to jiggle or report the polls in such a way that it could be close. Keep the cash flowing baby.
And drill the moose.
shw
McCain’s ~
IMMATURE behavior in response to this economic crisis speaks volumes.
Now McCain Campaign is asking for rules for Palin’s debate with Biden.
Rules for Sarah – include scripted interviews, not turning in tax returns, not showing up for troopergate.
Tom Brokaw, Bob Schieffer and Jim Lehrer – we are counting on you to do your job like Charlie Gibson did. There are no rules when someone is running for VP. There were none for Hillary or anyone else.
People lets just call this what it is – a farce. McCain is putting himself first not the country – don’t let him fool you.
This is a sad day in America
I am an old, haggard toothless Virginia native female, over fifty, raised by the Bible, never lost that bad word “ain’t.” Ma swears we are white folk.
Extremists are people we are supposedly fighting a war against in the Middle East. We don’t need them here, running the government, court houses, Congress or the White House.
There needn’t be any secret societies, secret plans for the “Lord’s chosen” for Armageddon or cocaine profits floating banks, the money buying the road to the Pearly Gates. We have enough confusion with the failing economy.
Extremists are those confused religious ones in past times who burned innocent people wrongly judged witches, nearly exterminated the indigenous populations of North and South America, and lynched folks who weren’t an acceptable color. They all thought it was the “End of Time,” and then they died and were buried.
It’s a darker part of our heritage and one to leave far, far behind.
With Obama and the Democrats there are reportedly possible mafia affiliations, and we’re supposed to be fighting terrorists. I’d like to know the truth about it, and understand why for more than 100 years this darkness has prevailed and maintained a stronghold, allowed to grow, while our children have been sacrificed to free people from evil and oppression overseas.
Will Mr. Biden will handle labor with care to be sure these Americans are not victimized or infiltrated by thugs and racketeers, or greedy, overpaid executives?
Our taxes spent to fight crime have been wasted while the insanity and devastation continues with street drugs, money made from it legit and illegal; while the word insane or “loony” is tossed loosely at every person who disagrees with Fox News.
Republicans are out-of-touch in choosing a Keating Five criminal in the midst of financial collapse, who’s too old; and a female under investigation, already trying to conceal information, who has nice “tits.” They’re off-base in using religion in a ridiculing way, to campaign for winning and profit, and in using religion at all.
But I think they really, honestly believe it’s “Armageddon Time.”
It doesn’t surprise me sports proned Republicans who like big cigars, chose a beautiful, busty woman to run their race, as Rush Limbaugh said about Hillary, “She has a voice like one of your ex-wives.” (It’s a discard-for-profit society.)
You can bet they’ll put a woman in office they can control, because Republicans are like that, yes they are.
Republicans make money from cigars and then frame Democrats for smoking them (or, whatever.) They also make money off pot by throwing Democrats in jail for growing it, while Republicans are probably the ones selling the seeds.
Republicans stack the deck, and give their buddies any extra money and stock tips. They hire spies and teams of frame-up engineers to destroy their American foes, while perpetually kissing Britain’s behind. But so do Democrats.
Democrats make fine movies, and are perpetually for “the poor folk” but I don’t see any of them handing out any cash in my neighborhood. Once in Congress they suck the Government’s teat as voraciously as any Republican piglet.
Both have members at the CFR, Trilateral and Bilderbuggermen, (for all the conspiracy theorists who already know about it…..)
That said, I don’t know who I’m voting for, but if I don’t vote for Obama it won’t be because of the color of his skin, but his choices in friends, and advisors.
If Palin is elected President, I expect the U.S.A.F. to christen her Queen, and then a space ship will land surely sent from Area 51. A little green guy will walk out and everybody will run to Alaska awaiting the last, Big Battle in the sky.
The little green guy will be David Addington in disguise promising eight more years of “Unitary Executive Theory”.. oh no!
If Obama wins, George Allen and Jack Abramoff will fall down wailing and knashing their teeth. Some will adorn themselves with sack cloth and ashes.
Others will at least give the guy a chance.
You can bet all of us macaques will be watching from the trees, with our passports ready and up to date, hoping the election is nothing to be afraid of.
Hopefully macaques can have a sense of humor even if humans don’t.
Religions often say, “Because I have judged you inferior to me, let me change you, else I will despise you and I might kill you.”
The Christian church I was raised in taught love and understanding, respect, forgiveness and tolerance. Truth and peace were its focus, and there’s nothing wrong with that. We weren’t “evangelical” and were taught to find goodness with everybody.
Jefferson believed in separation of Church and State. He surely foresaw it as a peaceful manner of maintaining respect for the privacy and religious rights and preferences of all races and religions.
There’s nothing wrong or “sinful” about that, either.
Okay, MICHELLE – Google McCain + Organized Crime. That should tell you who we definitely do NOT want in the White House. And a vote for Nader or McKinney is a vote for McCain – maybe Bob Barr? Remember how he treated Clinton? Unless staying home is an option, Obama is the only one left.
Before everyone gives the green light to Paulson and Bernanke’s broken plan to restore confidence. It won’t. And I don’t believe voting (even rigged voting) will matter much in our lives, if this isn’t stopped right now.
THEY CREATED THIS MESS.
THEY CAN NOT GET US OUT.
THEY WILL JUST MAKE IT 100 TIMES WORSE.
WRITE CONGRESS THIS MORNING.
FIX IT NOW – Plan to Actually SOLVE THE PROBLEM
Document referenced in the above
Come on people, Get On this NOW!!!
The public pole usually don’t exactly reflects the exact decision of an individual for final voting. Things are changing so fast at the national and international front that which way the public decision will go at the time of voting is unpredictable.
http;//www.statedemocracy.org prvide an easy tool for voters.
hanks
I 150% agree with phil. REALLY you people ought to be ashamed of your selves. Stop debating SHIT issues like Palin and Fucking obvious fake polls. What Paulson and the treasury is doing right now is putting the death touch on our country. The American Dream is now dead and all you bloggers can do is play the LOOK at the MONKEY game while the flames are buring even higher right behind you. Inflation is coming and the FED has absolutely no legal right to FUCK us this way and buy all of these companies.
Don’t take my word for it
http://patriotarchives.blogspot.com/
or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBtAq7nqgHE
We are in the window, Do Something, WAKE UP, we are all being fucked right now.
So who thinks printing a whole city street block with piles of $100 bills 8 feet high is gonna help anything. Whoosh there goes the buying power of our dollar. C-ya
We are truly fucked if people can’t stop tallking about Palin and turn around and see the theft.
Let me rephrase- WE NEED TO BE THE DICKS.
We’re dicks! We’re reckless, arrogant, stupid dicks! And Congress.. are pussies. And the FED.. is an asshole. Pussies don’t like dicks!.. because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes. Assholes who just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way, but the only thing that can fuck an asshole… is a dick… with some balls. The problem with dicks is that sometimes they fuck too much, or fuck when it isn’t appropriate, and it takes a pussy to show ’em that. But sometimes pussies get so full of shit that they become assholes themselves. Because pussies are only an inch and a half away from assholes. I don’t know much in this crazy, crazy world, but I do know that if you don’t let us fuck this asshole, we are gonna have our dicks and our pussies… all covered in shit.
Okay – I hear that Lyndon LaRouche has presented a thing called “The Homeowners’ and Bank Protection Act” which, if passed and signed into law, could lead us out of the morass we are in, by buying time we badly need to work our way out of the catastrophe that Wall Street and the Fed have gotten us into. Poulson and Bernanke haven’t a clue. LaRouche has been predicting the mess we’re in for twenty years that I know of, and has been ignored, principally because he ran an expose on the Bushes a long time ago. However, as the only economist who could find his butt with both hands, he has had a long time to think about ways to recover, once the disaster he foretold came about. A lot of states would like to see his bill enacted, but as long as the Wall Street jerks keep control, it’s impossible. If anyone has Obama’s ear, it might be a good idea to tell him about this. Of course, LaRouche doesn’t think Obama has a clue, either, but I believe he’d listen to reason. He just has to get out from under Rubin and the rest of the barefoot financiers.
TEDEGAR, thanks, amazing so few clear choices. Whoever is elected will fall flat on his/her face dealing with the coming crisis. Republicans have lead this country to a revolting financial predicament.
(The American financial budget isn’t bottomless like Poppy Bush’s checkbook.)
Some folks are afraid and insecure with a possible Obama presidency.
Racism however large or small, is a fact of American life. It’s a reality to be dealt with and exists on all levels, in all areas and colors, however great or small.
Obama will have to find a way to calm those emotions, whereas McCain has an advantage.
In that, the playing field isn’t level. Obama’s choice of associates will help secure his standing.
McCain and Palin seem to be depending on very far-right Americans who believe “the end is near.” Republicans disdainfully have patronized religious folks for for several elections.
They’ve utilized pulpits, fear and imaginary terror to gain power, and then they’ve waged war and depleted the treasury. They’ve preyed on the fears and innocent ignorance of a general population neither political party adequately educated.
Now many extremely religious, desperate Republican followers actually believe these are the “End Times” and are readying themselves for the Great Battle. Republicans are using these people, and it’s rather abhorrent to observe.
When there’s nothing to eat, and no money to buy clothing will a Republican Santa Claus be there to help out? Did a Republican Santa give 45 million Americans the same quality healthcare enjoyed by Congress, or did he stabilize social security?
No, he waged war, sold American, tax-built public institutions and properties to foreign investors and private corporations; and put a burden of debt on the next five generations, yet unborn.
Did he do it with the Lord’s help? Bush stated “We are the children of Abraham” early in his Presidency.
I’d shiver in believing he had Divine Intervention in any of his decision processes.
As sick as it may be, the “Great Battle” is a Bush design, and fanatical Republican strategy.
Just get the necessary forms and GO VISIT the Vetrans in the hospitals, wherever you live.
Bring Registration forms, Pens, and maybe even Postage Stamps for them to mail in their abstentee ballots.
You are just a visitor !! and Fight if you must !
The Obama office in Bellevue, Wa promised me some forms and I am on my way. You Do It Too ! Thanx
DO NOT CONSENT TO THIS BAILOUT.
Oneguy, LOVE….TO YA.
Phil ~ Has nancy pelosi dropped the laundry and puckered up again ?
republicans are the cancer on America.
DON’T CONSENT
Trickle Down Economics . . .
Trickle Down Economics: a.k.a. The golden shower for the poor and middle class. Even better, the poor and middle class get to pay for it.